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富途研选 | 美股泥沙俱下,哪些优质企业被“错杀”?
Rich way research election | the United States stocks are full of mud and sand, which high-quality enterprises have been "mistakenly killed"?

富途研选 ·  {{timeTz}}

本文精编自民生证券《数据中心:沧海流量,信息基石》、东兴证券《疫情导致全球股市回调,有哪些优质海外科技资产超跌?》

This article is edited by Minsheng Securities "data Center: sea flow, Information Cornerstone" and Dongxing Securities "the epidemic has led to a correction in the global stock market. What are the high-quality overseas technology assets that have overfallen? "

摘要:新冠疫情蔓延,全球股市无差别地下跌,但这也为投资优质企业创造了机会。东兴证券认为,有一类公司,疫情对其商业模式与业绩呈持续积极性影响:这类公司的业绩有可能不会受疫情影响,商业模式长期积极向好,如IDC(Internet Data Center互联网数据中心)产业链。

Abstract: COVID-19 epidemic spread, the global stock market fell indiscriminately, but it also created opportunities for investment in high-quality enterprises. Dongxing Securities believes that there is a class of companies whose business model and performance are continuously positively affected by the epidemic: the performance of such companies may not be affected by the epidemic, and their business models are positive for a long time, such as the IDC (Internet Data Center Internet data Center) industry chain.

危机里的「机」

"opportunity" in the crisis

新冠疫情海外蔓延,全球股市无差别地下跌,虽然新冠疫情的发展存在许多的不确定性,但有一些事情变得越来越确定:

COVID-19 's epidemic spread overseas, and global stock markets fell indiscriminately. Although there are many uncertainties in the development of COVID-19 's epidemic, some things are becoming more and more certain:

①放水,世界各国的经济因为新冠疫情受到较大影响,各国会在疫情结束之后陆续出台经济刺激政策;

②新的商机,疫情带来的人们行为模式的改变会促生一批商业模式,也会对一批商业模式形成冲击。

With the release of ① water, the economies of countries around the world have been greatly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, and countries will gradually introduce economic stimulus policies after the end of the epidemic.

New business opportunities for ②, the changes in people's behavior patterns brought about by the epidemic will promote a number of business models, and will also have an impact on a number of business models.

东兴证券指出,有一类公司,疫情对其商业模式与业绩呈持续积极性影响:这类公司的业绩有可能不会受疫情影响,商业模式长期积极向好,如IDC(Internet Data Center互联网数据中心)产业链。

Dongxing Securities pointed out that there is a class of companiesThe epidemic has a sustained positive impact on their business model and performance: the performance of such companies may not be affected by the epidemic, and the business model is positive over a long period of time, such as the IDC (Internet Data Center Internet data Center) industry chain.

被错杀的IDC产业

The mistakenly killed IDC industry

东兴证券认为,IDC产业链是泥沙俱下,被大盘拖累的,并指出市场恐慌消耗后是投资最早的机会:

Dongxing Securities believes that the IDC industrial chain is full of mud and sand and is dragged down by the market, and points out that the consumption of market panic is the earliest opportunity to invest:

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短期来看,新冠疫情促进在线需求由国内扩散至全球,流量提升促使云、互联网等产商增加IDC的需求。

In the short termCOVID-19 's epidemic has promoted the spread of online demand from domestic to global, and the increase in traffic has prompted cloud, Internet and other manufacturers to increase the demand for IDC.

长期来看,需求量增长较为确定。全球云化趋势不改,5G带来的数据流量爆发是未来确定的事件,数字基建长期需求旺盛。另外,IDC重资产属性,行业扩张速度低于需求增速,供需缺口长期存在,使得价格稳定。

In the long runThe growth of demand is relatively certain. The global cloud trend remains unchanged, the outbreak of data traffic brought about by 5G is a certain event in the future, and the long-term demand for digital infrastructure is strong. In addition, IDC is heavy on assets, the speed of industry expansion is lower than the growth rate of demand, and the gap between supply and demand exists for a long time, which makes the price stable.

另外,3月25日半导体存储大厂美光,最新公布的财报给数据中心业绩逆势大涨敲了实锤:美光CEO表示,受新冠疫情的影响,手机、消费电子的需求大幅下滑,但这部分下滑被远程办公、游戏和电子商务推动的强劲数据中心业务所抵消,并且由于数据中心业务需求太旺盛,开给导致存储供给的紧张。

In addition, on March 25, Meguiar, a major semiconductor storage company, announced its latest financial results, which hammered the data center's performance against the trend:Meguiar CEO said that affected by COVID-19 's epidemic, the demand for mobile phones and consumer electronics dropped sharply.But part of the decline was offset by a strong data center business driven by telecommuting, gaming and e-commerce, and the demand for data center business was so strong that storage supply was tight.

IDC产业链流量传导逻辑

Flow Transmission Logic of IDC Industry chain

民生证券批出,流量增长直接驱动互联网云厂商Capex投入增加,云计算行业大规模兴起,边缘计算也正在逐步发挥其价值,在此逻辑下数据流量的增长拉动数据中心核心基础设施的需求,使得IDC产业链整体受益,ICT设备商业绩快速增长,从而再次推动云计算及互联网的发展,反哺下游应用层。

With the approval of Minsheng Securities, the growth of traffic directly drives the increase of Capex investment by Internet cloud vendors, the cloud computing industry is springing up on a large scale, and edge computing is gradually giving full play to its value. under this logic, the growth of data traffic drives the demand for core infrastructure in the data center, benefiting the IDC industry chain as a whole, and the performance of ICT equipment vendors is growing rapidly, thus once again promoting the development of cloud computing and the Internet, and feeding the downstream application layer.

简单理解就是:数据流量增长→计算(云和边缘)需求增加→IDC和云厂商Capex投入增加→投资数据中心基础设施

Simple understanding is: data traffic growth → computing (cloud and edge) demand increase → IDC and cloud vendor Capex investment increase → investment in data center infrastructure

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IDC竞争格局及投资标的

IDC competition pattern and investment target

全球IDC服务市场以第三方IDC服务商为主,美国Equinix公司市场份额第一,占据全球托管市场约15%的份额,其次为DigitalRealty,占比约9%,中国电信市场份额位居第五,占比约3%,整体市场格局较为分散,但随着运营商逐步退出IDC市场,同时企业逐步将工作负载转移到云上或使用托管设施,数据中心行业并购数量逐年递增,IDC市场集中度有望进一步提升,马太效应逐步增强。

The global IDC service market is dominated by third-party IDC service providers. Equinix Company of the United States has the first market share, accounting for about 15% of the global hosting market, followed by DigitalRealty, accounting for about 9%. China Telecom Corporation's market share ranks fifth, accounting for about 3%, and the overall market structure is relatively scattered.As operators gradually withdraw from the IDC market, while enterprises gradually transfer workloads to the cloud or use hosting facilities, the number of mergers and acquisitions in the data center industry is increasing year by year, IDC market concentration is expected to further increase, and the Matthew effect is gradually enhanced.

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Equinix是全球数据中心龙头企业,其扩张资产的主要途径是通过全球并购,全球覆盖度在商业主机代管行业中无与伦比,数据中心总数203个(截止2019Q2),其中87个数据中心位于美洲,42个位于亚洲,73个位于欧洲和中东,主要布局集中在重点城市。

Equinix is the leading global data center enterprise.The main way to expand its assets is through global mergers and acquisitions, with unparalleled global coverage in the commercial hosting industry, with a total of 203data centers (as of 2019Q2), of which 87 are in the Americas, 42 in Asia and 73 in Europe and the Middle East, mainly in key cities.

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万国数据是国内最大第三方IDC企业,公司作为批发型IDC企业,主要绑定BAT等核心互联网企业,提供定制化增值服务,客户流动性较低,客户粘性较高,合同年限较长,伴随着云计算产业进入「黄金」发展时期,公司项目资源储备富足,增长前景广阔。

GDS Holdings Limited is the largest third party IDC enterprise in China.As a wholesale IDC enterprise, the company mainly binds BAT and other core Internet enterprises to provide customized value-added services with low customer mobility, high customer stickiness and long contract life, as the cloud computing industry enters a "golden" development period, the company has abundant project resources reserves and broad growth prospects.

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编辑/jasonzeng

Edit / jasonzeng

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