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大连港(601880)季报点评:油品增长难掩整体下滑 或成为东北港口资产平台
Comments on the quarterly report of Dalian Port (601880): the growth of oil products can not hide the overall decline or become the northeast port asset platform.

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大连港披露 15 年三季报。前三季度公司共实现收入 65.1 亿元,同比增17.5%;实现归属上市公司股东净利润 3.7 亿元,同比降 11.3%,扣非净利润 3.1 亿元,同比降 17.4%。 油品吞吐量一枝独秀,散粮业务延续大跌,其他业务表现平淡:前三季度油品吞吐量增速稳健, 累计增幅达 15.8%。 散粮延续颓势, 累计跌幅 42.1%,与上半年持平。 集装箱、汽车业务承压, 集装箱降幅较上半年扩大至 0.6%,汽车吞吐量增速由正转负。 矿石、杂货吞吐量跌幅改善,分别下降 4.2%与6.0%。另外客运业务降 3.9%,滚装车吞吐量增 11.3%。油品业务为前三季度公司收入增长主要动力,但受散粮、矿石板块低迷拖累及产能投放带来的成本增加,公司毛利率同比下滑 3 个点至 16.7%,实现毛利额 10.9 亿。 财务、管理成本导致净利下滑,4Q 难有显著改善:公司前 3 季度财务费用同比增 18.1%至 4.1 亿,管理费用同比增 9%至 4.3 亿,合计较去年增加近 1 亿元,这是净利润同比减少 5400 万元的主因。预计 4 季度宏观经济增速难超预期,港口吞吐量增速及上市公司经营形势整体平缓。 北方港口整合的大概率平台。 公司 10 月 13 日晚公告增发 14.8 亿 H 股获证监会核准,募集资金将用于油品业务拓展、国内外港口投资或优化整合、“互联网+港口”建设、专业化港口物流设施建设等。在目前国内港口缺乏整体规划、各地纷纷成立港口管理平台进行统一布局的背景之下,我们认为东北港口整合预期已在逐渐升温,未来政府有可能通过大连港将东北地区港口资源(大连港、营口港、锦州港、丹东港等)进行整合,便于统一管理和协调发展。 投资建议: 我们预计公司 2015-2017 年的收入增速分别为 18.5%、 8.9%、10.9%, 公司 EPS (暂不考虑增发项目) 增速分别为-13.8%、 7.6%、 10.5%,考虑到公司有成为北方港口整合平台的概率,给予增持-A 评级,6 个月目标价 7.5 元 风险提示:东北港口整合预期低于预期

Dalian Port reveals three quarterly reports for 15 years. In the first three quarters, the company achieved a total income of 6.51 billion yuan, an increase of 17.5% over the same period last year; the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was 370 million yuan, down 11.3% from the same period last year, and 310 million yuan after deducting non-net profit, down 17.4% from the same period last year. Oil throughput outperformed others, bulk grain business continued to fall sharply, and other business performance was lacklustre: oil throughput grew steadily in the first three quarters, with a cumulative growth rate of 15.8%. Bulk grain continued its decline, with a cumulative decline of 42.1%, the same as in the first half of the year. The container and automobile business is under pressure, the container decline has expanded to 0.6% compared with the first half of the year, and the growth rate of automobile throughput has changed from positive to negative. The throughput of ores and groceries decreased by 4.2% and 6.0%, respectively. In addition, passenger transport business decreased by 3.9%, while the throughput of ro-ro vehicles increased by 11.3%. The oil business was the main driver of the company's revenue growth in the first three quarters, but due to the downturn in the bulk grain and ore sectors and the increase in the cost of production capacity, the company's gross profit margin fell 3 points year-on-year to 16.7%, achieving a gross profit of 1.09 billion. Financial and management costs led to a decline in net profit, and 4Q was difficult to make a significant improvement: the company's financial expenses in the first three quarters increased by 18.1% to 410 million compared with the same period last year, and management expenses increased by 9% to 430 million over the same period last year, totaling nearly 100 million yuan over last year, which is the main reason why the net profit decreased by 54 million yuan compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the macroeconomic growth rate in the fourth quarter will be difficult to exceed expectations, and the port throughput growth rate and the overall operating situation of listed companies will be flat. A high probability platform for the integration of northern ports. The company announced on the evening of October 13 that the issuance of an additional 1.48 billion H shares has been approved by the CSRC, and the funds raised will be used for oil business development, investment or optimization and integration of domestic and foreign ports, construction of "Internet + Port", construction of specialized port logistics facilities, etc. Under the background of the lack of overall planning of domestic ports and the establishment of port management platforms for unified layout, we believe that the expectation of port integration in Northeast China is gradually heating up. in the future, the government may integrate the port resources in Northeast China (Dalian Port, Yingkou Port, Jinzhou Port, Dandong Port, etc.) through Dalian Port, so as to facilitate unified management and coordinated development. Investment suggestion: we expect the company's revenue to grow by 18.5%, 8.9% and 10.9% respectively from 2015 to 2017, and the company's EPS (not considering additional offerings for the time being) will grow by-13.8%, 7.6% and 10.5% respectively. Considering that the company has the probability of becoming a northern port integration platform, it will be given a-A rating and a 6-month target price of 7.50 yuan. Risk hint: northeast port integration expectations are lower than expected

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