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大连港(02880.HK):盈利能力下降 维持“中性”
Dalian Port (02880.HK): profitability decline to maintain "neutral"

国泰君安国际 ·  {{timeTz}}

除去贸易业务的影响,2015年前三季收入同比增长0.7%。该增长主要因为油品吞吐量上升导致的油品装卸业务收入增长。然而,收入的增长受到散粮码头和矿石码头的吞吐量下降影响,其同时影响了毛利率。期间毛利率同比下降了3.0百分点至16.6%。2015年前三季净利润同比下跌11.3%至3.71亿元人民币。 油品码头预计在2015年和2016年维持稳健。另一方面,矿石码头和粮食码头预计维持疲弱;集装箱码头吞吐量预计为低增长。总体来说,我们稍微调整了2015年-2017年收入预测并且下调2015年-2017年净利润预测15.8%,24.0%和25.1%以反映散粮码头和矿石码头的疲弱表现。 计划中的新发行H股将会稀释每股盈利约20%。下调盈利预测后,我们认为当前公司估值过高。然而,当前公司H股股价相当于对其A股股价达67%的折让,我们认为H股股价将会一定程度上受到支持。因此我们维持投资评级“中性”。然而,我们下调目标价至2.50港元以反映下调的盈利预测。更新后的目标价相当于22.6倍,24.0倍和22.5倍2015年-2017年市盈率,或0.7倍2015年市净率。

Excluding the impact of trade, revenue rose 0.7 per cent year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2015. The increase is mainly due to the increase in revenue from the oil handling business caused by the increase in oil throughput. However, the increase in income was affected by the decline in the throughput of bulk and ore terminals, which also affected gross profit margins. During the period, gross profit margin fell 3.0 percentage points year-on-year to 16.6%. Net profit in the first three quarters of 2015 fell 11.3 per cent from a year earlier to 371 million yuan. The oil terminal is expected to remain robust in 2015 and 2016. On the other hand, ore and food terminals are expected to remain weak; container terminal throughput is expected to show low growth. Overall, we slightly adjusted our 2015-2017 revenue forecasts and lowered our 2015-2017 net profit forecasts by 15.8%, 24.0% and 25.1% to reflect the weak performance of bulk grain terminals and ore terminals. The planned new H shares will dilute earnings per share by about 20 per cent. After lowering the profit forecast, we believe that the current valuation of the company is too high. However, the current H-share price of the company is equivalent to a 67% discount to its A-share price, and we think the H-share price will be supported to some extent. Therefore, we maintain the investment rating "neutral". However, we lowered our target price to HK $2.50 to reflect the downward profit forecast. The updated target price is equivalent to 22.6 times, 24.0 times and 22.5 times 2015-2017 earnings, or 0.7 times 2015 price-to-book ratio.

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