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An in-depth Analysis of Nanjing Panda (600775): the forgotten Kung Fu Panda

华金证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

投资要点 集团资本运作加速,电子对抗资产注入预期强:中国电子信息集团的资产重组步伐明显加快,目前长城电脑、长城信息两个公司已经停牌。公司股东中电熊猫集团是我国对空情报雷达、岸基和舰载警戒雷达的主要科研生产基地和国家军用电子对抗装备的科研生产骨干企业。我们认为南京熊猫最有可能获得注入汉达科技的军用无线电通信对抗装备资产,此外还有可能注入长江电子、科瑞达的军用电子装备资产,这几家公司都是国家军用电子对抗领域的骨干企业,业务含金量很高,2014 年收入和净利润分别是南京熊猫的72%和230%。 被忽视的工业自动化装备强者:公司是国内在工业机器人和自动化成套装备领域拥有高端核心技术的企业,2012 年11 月即定增投向工业机器人、自动传输装备、自动灌装装备项目,目前TFT-LCD 净化厂房系统、SMT 表面贴装生产线系统、自动包装系统、电动汽车全自动电池更换系统、晶片晶体自动分选系统、焊接系统解决方案、机器人等均已实现了规模化发展,其中LCD-TFT 净化厂房设备系统和国家智能电网电动汽车自动换电站系统被列为重大工程项目。 其他业务多点布局,静待花开:轨道交通装备方面公司是AFC 龙头受益于轨交建设大潮;通信装备和产品方面公司大力发展军用移动通信和物联网解决方案;消费电子方面公司是数字规音频类产品老牌企业技术积淀深厚;电子制造方面公司的硬件设施条件优越,积极向综合EMS 企业转变。 投资建议:(1)公司现有业务收入稳步增长,2014 年收入同比增长40.7%,过往两年复合增速为19.81%,毛利率水平也在不断改善。在不考虑资产注入的情况下,预计公司2015-2017 年EPS 分别为0.22/0.25/0.32 元,对应的PE 为81/70/54 倍。(2)对公司现有业务给予40 倍PE,对应的2016 年合理市值为91.4 亿元。(3)参照主板上电子对抗可比公司的平均PE,潜在注入的资产合理市值为398 亿元,扣除已在目前市值反映的部分,公司的市值还有180%的提升空间。因此,我们给予公司“买入-A”的投资评级,6 个月目标价为30 元。 风险提示:集团对军工资产注入的安掋超出预期;液晶面板生产线投建进度戒机器人市场开拓低于预期;轨交投资放缓;消费电子和电子制造订单大幅下滑;等等。

Main points of investment The capital operation of the group has accelerated, and the injection of electronic countermeasures assets is expected to be strong: the pace of asset restructuring of China Electronic Information Group has obviously speeded up, and trading of Great Wall computer and Great Wall Information has been suspended. The company's shareholder, China Electric Panda Group, is the main scientific research and production base of China's air-to-air intelligence radar, shore-based and shipborne warning radar and the backbone enterprise of national military electronic countermeasure equipment. We believe that Nanjing Panda is most likely to obtain military radio communication countermeasure equipment assets injected into Handa Science and Technology, as well as Changjiang Electronics and Coreda's military electronic equipment assets. these companies are the backbone enterprises in the national military electronic countermeasures field, with a high gold content, with revenue and net profit of 72% and 230% of Nanjing Panda in 2014, respectively. Neglected industrial automation equipment strong: the company is a domestic enterprise with high-end core technology in the field of industrial robots and automation equipment, and has invested in industrial robots, automatic transmission equipment and automatic filling equipment projects since November 2012. At present, TFT-LCD purification plant system, SMT surface mount production line system, automatic packaging system, electric vehicle automatic battery replacement system, wafer crystal automatic sorting system, welding system solution, robot and so on have achieved large-scale development, among which LCD-TFT purification plant equipment system and national smart grid electric vehicle automatic power station exchange system are listed as major projects. Other business multi-point layout, waiting to blossom: rail transit equipment company is the AFC leader to benefit from the spring tide of rail construction; communications equipment and products company vigorously develop military mobile communications and Internet of things solutions; consumer electronics company is a digital audio products veteran enterprises with profound technology accumulation; electronics manufacturing company's hardware facilities conditions are superior, actively transform into a comprehensive EMS enterprise. Investment advice: (1) the company's existing business revenue is growing steadily, with a year-on-year increase of 40.7% in 2014, a compound growth rate of 19.81% in the past two years, and a continuous improvement in gross margin. Without considering the asset injection, the EPS of the company in 2015-2017 is expected to be 0.22, 0.25, 0.32 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 81-70-54. (2) give 40 times PE to the company's existing business, corresponding to a reasonable market capitalization of 9.14 billion yuan in 2016. (3) with reference to the average PE of electronic countermeasures comparable companies on the motherboard, the reasonable market value of the potential injected assets is 39.8 billion yuan. After deducting the part that has been reflected in the current market value, the market value of the company still has 180% room for improvement. Therefore, we give the company a "buy-A" investment rating with a 6-month target price of 30 yuan. Risk hints: the group's injection of safety into military assets is higher than expected; the progress of LCD panel production line construction is lower than expected; the robot market development is lower than expected; rail transit investment slows; consumer electronics and electronics manufacturing orders drop sharply; and so on.

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