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大连港(02880.HK):估值仍然过高 维持“减持”
Dalian Port (02880.HK): valuation is still too high to maintain "reduction"

国泰君安国际 ·  {{timeTz}}

除去贸易业务的影响,2015 年收入同比下降1.0%,下降主要由于散粮业务、矿石业务和杂货业务吞吐量下降,同时受到油品业务、集装箱业务和增值服务收入增长的对冲。股东净利同比下降7.0%至4.84 亿元人民币,符合预期。 油品码头预计在2016 年维持稳健。另一方面,矿石码头和粮食码头预计维持疲弱;集装箱码头吞吐量预计难有增长。总体来说,公司的盈利能力在2016 年预计仍然较低。 全部发行计划中的新H 股将会稀释每股盈利约20%。考虑到盈利预测,即使考虑因增发获得的资金带来的所有增长潜力,我们仍认为当前公司估值显著过高。我们维持投资评级“减持”和目标价至2.50 港元。我们的目标价相当于21.5 倍,23.0 倍和21.8 倍2016 年-2018年市盈率,或0.7 倍2016 年市净率。

Excluding the impact of trade business, revenue fell 1.0% in 2015 compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a decline in the throughput of bulk grain business, ore business and grocery business, while being offset by growth in revenue from oil business, container business and value-added services. Net profit for shareholders fell 7.0 per cent year-on-year to 484 million yuan, in line with expectations. The oil terminal is expected to remain robust in 2016. On the other hand, ore and food terminals are expected to remain weak; container terminal throughput is not expected to grow. Overall, the company's profitability is expected to remain low in 2016. All the planned new H shares will dilute earnings per share by about 20%. Taking into account the earnings forecast, we still believe that the current valuation of the company is significantly too high, even if we take into account all the growth potential of the funds obtained from the rights issue. We maintain our investment rating "underweight" and target price to HK $2.50. Our target price is equivalent to 21.5 times, 23.0 times and 21.8 times 2016-2018 price-to-earnings ratio, or 0.7 times 2016 price-to-book ratio.

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