大连港披露15年年报。全年实现收入88.9亿元,同比增11.9%;实现归属上市公司股东净利润4.8亿元,同比降7.0%,扣非净利润4.2亿元,同比降8.9%。公司拟每10股派发0.75元(含税),派送3股股票股利,同时以资本公积金每10股转增10股。 油品吞吐量一枝独秀,散粮业务延续大跌,其他业务表现平淡:全年油品吞吐量增速较高,累计增幅达18.9%。散粮延续颓势,累计下降34.3%。集装箱业务承压,集装箱下降6.0%,汽车业务有所回升,汽车吞吐量增幅5.7%。 矿石、杂货吞吐量跌幅改善,分别下降11.7%与7.9%。另外客运业务降5.0%,滚装车吞吐量降1.7%。油品业务为全年公司收入增长主要动力,但受散粮、矿石板块低迷拖累及产能投放带来的成本增加,公司毛利率同比下降1个点至16.4%,实现毛利额15.8亿。若2016年宏观经济增速未超预期,港口吞吐量增速及上市公司经营形势难见大幅改善。 财务、管理成本为净利下滑主因:公司2015年财务费用同比增6.4%至6.6亿,管理费用同比增6.9%至7.1亿,合计较去年增加超过2亿元,这是净利润同比减少3800万元的主因。 北方港口整合的优质平台。在当前国内经济形势低迷、港口缺乏统一规划的背景下,我们认为东北港口深化整合可期,大连港作为东北第一大港,有极大概率成为东北地区港口资源整合的核心,以便协调发展。 打通国际物流通道,一带一路走出去。大连港是国家“一带一路”发展战略中重点发展的15个沿海港口之一,目前已与全球300多个港口和地区互通,现有对外合作项目包括与俄远东运输集团合作的冷链物流通道、与波罗的海马尔默港建设的“辽宁海外仓”探索跨境电商、与招商局合作在非洲吉布提港投资的自贸区等。 投资建议:我们预计公司2016年-2018年的收入增速分别为10.8%、12.7%、14.0%,净利润增速分别为5.0%、8.2%、10.5%。给予增持-A评级,6个月目标价4.8元,相当于2016年53倍市盈率。 风险提示:东北港口整合预期低于预期、海外市场发展低于预期
Dalian Port publishes 15-year annual report. The annual income was 8.89 billion yuan, an increase of 11.9% over the same period last year; the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was 480 million yuan, down 7.0% from the same period last year, and the non-net profit was 420 million yuan, down 8.9% from the same period last year. The company plans to pay 0.75 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, 3 stock dividends and 10 shares for every 10 shares in the capital accumulation fund. The oil throughput outperformed others, the bulk grain business continued to plummet, and the performance of other businesses was lacklustre: the growth rate of oil throughput for the whole year was relatively high, with a cumulative increase of 18.9%. Bulk grain continued its decline, with a cumulative decline of 34.3%. Container business was under pressure, with containers falling by 6.0%, automobile business picking up somewhat, and car throughput increasing by 5.7%. The throughput of ores and groceries decreased by 11.7% and 7.9%, respectively. In addition, passenger transport business fell by 5.0%, and the throughput of ro-ro vehicles dropped by 1.7%. The oil business was the main driver of the company's revenue growth for the whole year, but due to the downturn in the bulk grain and ore sectors and the increase in the cost of production capacity, the company's gross profit margin fell 1 point year-on-year to 16.4%, achieving a gross profit of 1.58 billion. If the macroeconomic growth rate does not exceed expectations in 2016, the port throughput growth rate and the operating situation of listed companies will hardly be significantly improved. Financial and management costs are the main reasons for the decline in net profit: in 2015, the company's financial expenses increased by 6.4% year-on-year to 660 million, and management expenses increased by 6.9% to 710 million, a total increase of more than 200 million yuan over last year, which is the main reason for the decrease of 38 million yuan in net profit compared with the same period last year. A high-quality platform for the integration of northern ports. Under the background of the current depressed domestic economic situation and the lack of unified port planning, we think that the deepening integration of the northeast port is expected. Dalian Port, as the largest port in the northeast, is very likely to become the core of the integration of port resources in the northeast region in order to coordinate development. Opening up the international logistics channel, Belt and Road Initiative went out. Dalian Port is one of the 15 key coastal ports in the national "Belt and Road Initiative" development strategy. at present, it has interconnected with more than 300 ports and regions around the world. the existing foreign cooperation projects include the cold-chain logistics channel with the Russian far East Transport Group, the "Liaoning overseas warehouse" built with the Malmer port in the Baltic Sea to explore cross-border e-commerce, and the free trade zone invested in the African port of Djibouti with China Merchants. Investment advice: we expect revenue growth of 10.8%, 12.7% and 14.0% for 2016-2018, and net profit growth of 5.0%, 8.2% and 10.5%, respectively. Given a-A rating, the six-month target price is 4.8 yuan, equivalent to 53 times 2016 price-to-earnings ratio. Risk hint: northeast port integration is lower than expected and overseas market development is lower than expected.