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[Anxin Securities] Dalian Port: oil boom ore is low, the port platform is worth paying attention to.

安信证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

大连港披露16年一季报。1Q2016实现收入23.3亿元,同比增13.0%;实现归属上市公司股东净利润1.2亿元,同比增4.1%,扣非净利润1.2亿元同比增13.9%。 油品散粮表现上佳,矿石杂货延续颓势:1Q2016,集团油品码头延续15全年的景气表现,吞吐量达1554.2万吨,同比增长16.8%;散粮吞吐量同增22.6%,较之去年大幅改善。矿石杂货板块则继续颓势,矿石码头受外进与转水货源影响,吞吐量大降41.8%;杂货方面煤炭稳定钢铁下降,总体跌幅4.4%。另外受宏观经济负面影响,集团下属集装箱吞吐量小幅减少2.1%,汽车、客运、滚装吞吐增速分别为0.3%、-3.0%、-7.4%。 毛利率下滑叠加补贴减少,净利增速不及收入:由于成本上涨,公司一季度毛利率15.2%,较去年同期下降一个百分点,实现毛利额3.55亿元,同比增长5.7%。加之本季度集装箱补贴减少,营业外收入同降37.1%减少1700万元,在此影响下公司实现净利润1.2亿元,增速4.1%低于收入增速。 北方港口整合的优质平台,东北振兴重要根据地。在当前国内经济形势低迷、港口缺乏统一规划的背景下,我们认为大连港作为东北第一大港,有极大概率成为东北地区港口资源整合的核心,以便协调发展。另外,根据新华网消息,2016年4月26日国务院发布《中共中央国务院关于全面振兴东北地区等老工业基地的若干意见》,明确提及一带一路、推进中蒙俄经济走廊推进中韩自贸区建设等,预计大连港在东北振兴建设中将成为重要带动力量。 投资建议:我们预计公司2016年-2018年的收入增速分别为10.8%、12.7%、14.0%,净利润增速分别为5.0%、8.2%、10.5%。给予增持-A评级,6个月目标价6.2元,相当于2016年69倍市盈率。 风险提示:东北港口整合预期低于预期、海外市场发展低于预期

Dalian Port publishes 16-year quarterly report. 1Q2016 realized income of 2.33 billion yuan, an increase of 13.0% over the same period last year; net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was 120 million yuan, an increase of 4.1% over the same period last year, and non-net profit of 120 million yuan was 13.9% higher than the same period last year. Oil and bulk grain performed well, and ore and groceries continued the decline: 1Q2016, the group's oil terminal continued its economic performance for the whole year of 15 years, with a throughput of 15.542 million tons, an increase of 16.8 percent over the same period last year, while the throughput of bulk grain also increased by 22.6 percent, a substantial improvement over last year. The ore and grocery plate continued to decline, with the ore terminal affected by external imports and diversion sources, the throughput dropped by 41.8%; in terms of groceries, coal and steel declined steadily, with an overall decline of 4.4%. In addition, due to the negative macroeconomic impact, the container throughput of the group decreased slightly by 2.1%, and the growth rates of automobile, passenger transport and ro / ro throughput were 0.3%,-3.0% and-7.4%, respectively. The decline in gross profit margin superimposed subsidies reduced, net profit growth rate is less than income: due to rising costs, the company's first-quarter gross profit margin of 15.2%, down 1% from the same period last year, achieving a gross profit of 355 million yuan, an increase of 5.7% over the same period last year. Coupled with the reduction of container subsidies in this quarter, non-operating income also fell by 37.1% and decreased by 17 million yuan. Under this influence, the company achieved a net profit of 120 million yuan, a growth rate of 4.1% lower than that of income growth. The high-quality platform for the integration of the northern ports and the revitalization of the important base areas in the Northeast. Under the background of the current depressed domestic economic situation and the lack of unified port planning, we believe that Dalian Port, as the largest port in Northeast China, is very likely to become the core of the integration of port resources in Northeast China in order to coordinate development. In addition, according to Xinhuanet, the State Council issued some opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on comprehensively Revitalizing the Northeast and other old industrial bases on April 26, 2016. it is clearly mentioned that Belt and Road Initiative, promoting the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor and promoting the construction of the China-South Korea free trade zone, it is expected that Dalian Port will become an important driving force in the revitalization of the Northeast. Investment advice: we expect revenue growth of 10.8%, 12.7% and 14.0% for 2016-2018, and net profit growth of 5.0%, 8.2% and 10.5%, respectively. Given a-A rating, it has a six-month target price of 6.2 yuan, equivalent to 69 times 2016 earnings. Risk hint: northeast port integration is lower than expected and overseas market development is lower than expected.

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