The US government called on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) to "open the floodgates" to increase production to support the global economic recovery, but the world's largest oil industry forecaster did not "help". Instead of echoing calls from the Biden administration to increase production, they all downgraded their OPEC production forecasts needed to maintain market equilibrium in the coming quarters.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC lowered their demand forecasts for OPEC crude oil almost every quarter until the end of 2022. Of the 18 expectations, only two have been raised, and by a small margin.

Paris-based IEA and OPEC both expect stronger growth in crude oil supplies from non-OPEC countries than they did a month ago. But this largely reflects the supply agreement reached by OPEC+ oil-producing countries on the 18th of that month, shortly after it was expected to be published in July. Under the agreement, OPEC's overall output target will be raised by 400000 b / d per month until all production cuts in 2020 are fully restored, a process that is expected to continue until September 2022 without further adjustments.

In this monthly increase plan, nearly 150000 barrels per day come from non-OPEC members of the OPEC+, with Russia alone contributing more than 100000 barrels per day.

But rising production in non-OPEC countries is not the only problem facing OPEC countries in the coming months.

IEA pointed out that the current slower growth in oil demand than estimated a month ago, coupled with an increase in non-OPEC supply, will further squeeze OPEC countries. Global oil demand "reversed sharply" last month, falling slightly after surging 3.8 million barrels a day in June, IEA said. The agency cut its forecast for global oil demand for the second half of this year by 550000 barrels a day on the basis of its forecast a month ago.

But not all institutions are so pessimistic. EIA cut its fourth-quarter demand forecast only slightly by 90, 000 b / d, while OPEC largely maintained last month's demand outlook for the rest of the year.