Performance increased significantly, single-quarter revenue, net profit reached a new high. 2021H1 realized revenue of 3.993 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 70.10% over the same period last year, and net profit of 322 million yuan, a substantial increase of 140% over the same period last year, deducting 294 million yuan of non-return net profit, a sharp increase of 179.36% over the same period last year.
Q2's revenue and net profit in a single quarter reached an all-time high, with revenue of 2.18 billion yuan, year-on-year + 52.63%, month-on-month + 20.24%, and mother-to-mother net profit of 178 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153.04% and + 22.55%.
Downstream demand is strong, sales have increased significantly, and the effect of price increases is expected to be highlighted in the second half of the year. 1) Gross profit contribution: electrode foil, aluminum products and alloy products accounted for a significant increase in gross profit. The gross profit of electrode foil accounts for 32.2% (year-on-year + 4.3pct), aluminum products 14.5% (year-on-year + 4.8pct) and alloy products 16.3% (year-on-year + 9.2pct), reflecting the increasing volume of electrode foil and high-end aluminum products. We think that the price increase effect of the company's electrode foil and other products will appear in H2. 2) quantity: in order to meet the strong demand downstream, the company has improved the production capacity of the existing production line through technological transformation. The sales volume of electrode foil, electronic aluminum foil and alloy products are 13.1695 million square meters, 9800 tons and 37400 tons respectively, and the sales volume increased by 113.14%, 18.44% and 55.94% respectively compared with the same period last year. As the volume of non-public offering projects continues to build in 2019, we expect that the performance flexibility brought about by volume expansion will be more significant in 2021; 3) structure: progress has been made in the research and development and sales of high-end products, and the company has completed the development of 5G capacitor products. Results have been achieved in R & D and market sales of aerospace, flat panel display and semiconductor chip products, and volume will be increased in the coming year.
China's integrated suppliers of electronic grade high-end aluminum products, continue to expand production to benefit from new energy, semiconductor and aerospace development opportunities. 1) the company has the largest high purity aluminum production base in the world, with an annual production capacity of 180000 tons of high purity aluminum, 55-60 000 tons of high purity aluminum, 35000 tons of electronic aluminum foil and 23 million square meters of foil production capacity; 2) the company's non-public offering project in 2019 to expand production of 15 million square meters of foil is expected to be fully put into production in 2022H2, which will benefit from the demand for new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and wind power. 3) the company's 2021 rights issue project will expand high purity aluminum production capacity of 15000 tons, ultra-high purity aluminum base sputtering target billet of 3000 tons (used in aerospace field), high gross profit margin of production expansion project will bring high elasticity for the company's performance.
Investment advice: core logic: emerging areas to boost the volume and price of electrode foil, aluminum targets benefit from import substitution, high-strength and high-toughness products benefit from aerospace demand. We adjusted the company's home net profit forecast for 2021-2023 to 7.23,10.28 and 1.208 billion yuan, and adjusted the company's EPS forecast for 2021-2023 to 0.54,0.78 and 0.91 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price on August 12, the PE was 18.8X, 13.2X and 11.3X, respectively, maintaining the "prudent overweight" rating.
Risk tips: aluminum prices fell sharply, the company's fundraising project progress is not as expected; electrode foil downstream demand growth is not as expected.