Download
Download by
Scanning QR Code
  • Download app

    Download app

  • Online Inquiry

    Log in to access Online Inquiry
+
Congratulations
You've successfully got advanced quotes worth 5000 HKD
Download APP >>

OPEC维持今明两年石油需求乐观预测 上调美页岩油产量增幅预期
OPEC maintains optimistic Forecast of Oil demand this year and next year and raises production growth Forecast of US Shale Oil

新浪財經 ·  {{timeTz}}

石油输出国组织(OPEC)周四维持2021年全球石油需求将强劲复苏,明年将进一步增长的预测,尽管人们对Delta变种病毒感到担忧,变种的蔓延已令油价承压。

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) on Thursday maintained forecasts for a strong recovery in global oil demand in 2021 and further growth next year, despite concerns about the spread of the Delta variant, which has weighed on oil prices.

OPEC在一份月度报告中还上调了对包括美国页岩油生产商在内的竞争对手明年供应的预测,这可能会成为该组织及其盟友平衡市场努力的潜在阻力。

In a monthly report, OPEC also raised its supply forecasts for competitors, including US shale oil producers, next year, which could be a potential resistance to efforts by the group and its allies to balance the market.

“全球经济继续复苏,”OPEC月报称。“不过,众多挑战仍然存在,很容易抑制这一势头。特别是,与新冠疫情有关的发展将需要密切监控”。

"the global economy continues to recover," the OPEC monthly report said. However, many challenges remain and it is easy to curb this momentum. In particular, developments related to the COVID-19 epidemic will need to be closely monitored.

OPEC在报告中表示,预计今年的需求将增加595万桶/日,即6.6%,与上月的预测持平。报告并称,2022年燃料使用量将增加328万桶/日,也与上月预测持平。

Demand is expected to increase by 5.95 million b / d this year, or 6.6 per cent, the same as last month's forecast, OPEC said in a report. Fuel use will increase by 3.28 million barrels per day in 2022, which is also the same as last month's forecast, the report said.

报告发布后,油价在每桶71美元之上交投。受经济复苏希望和OPEC及其盟友组成的OPEC+联盟减产提振,油价今年已升至77美元上方的大流行前高位,尽管对Delta变种的担忧带来压力。

Oil prices traded above $71 a barrel after the report was released. Oil prices have risen to pre-pandemic highs above $77 this year, boosted by hopes of economic recovery and production cuts in the OPEC+ alliance of OPEC and its allies, despite pressure from fears of a variant of Delta.

OPEC将其对2021年世界经济增长的预测从5.5%上调至5.6%,前提是疫情影响将得到控制,但该组织警告称存在“重大不确定性”。OPEC将2022年的增长预测也上调同样幅度,至4.2%。

The OPEC raised its forecast for world economic growth in 2021 to 5.6 per cent from 5.5 per cent, provided the impact of the outbreak would be brought under control, but warned of "significant uncertainty". OPEC raised its growth forecast for 2022 by the same amount to 4.2 per cent.

OPEC表示,“新冠疫情的演变路径将是影响近期复苏速度的首要因素,潜在的变种病毒和/或突变的出现构成的风险尤其大。”

"the evolution path of the COVID-19 epidemic will be the primary factor affecting the rate of recovery in the near future, and the emergence of potential variants and / or mutations pose a particular risk," OPEC said.

页岩油产量料反弹

Shale oil production is expected to rebound

报告显示,OPEC产量将增加,并预测2022年来自包括美国页岩油生产商在内的竞争对手的供应会增加。

The report shows that OPEC production will increase and forecasts an increase in supply from competitors, including US shale oil producers, in 2022.

报告显示,OPEC 7月产量增加64万桶/日,至2,666万桶/日,沙特完全结束了此前为支撑市场而实施的自愿减产。

OPEC production increased by 640000 b / d in July to 26.66 million b / d, according to the report, as Saudi Arabia completely ended its previous voluntary production cuts to support the market.

该报告预测,2022年OPEC竞争对手的石油供应量将增加290万桶/日,上月的预测为增加84万桶/日,部分归因于OPEC+决定增产,以及油价上涨刺激投资。

The report predicts that oil supply from OPEC competitors will increase by 2.9 million b / d in 2022, compared with an increase of 840000 b / d last month, partly due to OPEC+ 's decision to increase production and higher oil prices to stimulate investment.

OPEC预计,美国页岩油产量在今年萎缩后,2022年将增加56万桶/日,比上月的预测高出6万桶/日。

OPEC expects US shale oil production to increase by 560000 b / d in 2022 after shrinking this year, 60, 000 b / d higher than last month's forecast.

“美国油企在2020-2021年期间一直在严格限产,”OPEC称,“尽管如此,活跃钻机数仍在继续增加,水力压裂油井增加,压裂井人员部署也增加,因企业再次拥有充裕的自由现金流。”

"US oil companies have been severely limiting production between 2020 and 2021," OPEC said. "nevertheless, the number of active rigs continues to increase, the number of hydraulic fracturing wells increases and the deployment of fracturing wells increases as companies once again have ample free cash flow."

竞争对手供应增加将限制明年对OPEC原油的需求增长。该组织预计,全球对其成员国石油的需求料为2,760万桶/日,较上月的预测低110万桶/日,但理论上OPEC仍有增产的空间。

Increased supply from competitors will limit demand for OPEC crude next year. It estimates that global demand for oil from its member countries is expected to be 27.6 million b / d, 1.1 million b / d lower than last month's forecast, but in theory there is still room for OPEC to increase production.

This page is machine-translated. Futubull tries to improve but do not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation.

Risk disclosure: The above content only represents the opinion of the authors or guests, and does not represent any positions of Futu or constitute any investment advice on the part of Futu. Before making any investment decision, investors should consider the risk factors related to investment products based on their own circumstances and consult professional investment advisers where necessary. Futu makes every effort to verify the authenticity, accuracy, and originality of the above content, but does not make any guarantees or promises.

Back to the Top