Analysis and judgment
In 2020, the company made the acquisition of two major online education projects, Aopeng Education and Capital Learning Network, but since the combined time will be in late December 2020 and January 2021 respectively, it will make little contribution to 2020, so it is expected to make a significant contribution in 2021. (1) in 2020, the income and net profit of the two projects are estimated to reach 10 / 100 million, and the number of registered students will reach 1.18 million. Both projects are mainly academic education and vocational education, which are not affected by the current education policy. The M & An of people's livelihood education mainly aims at the layout of each subdivided leader in academic education, vocational education, joint examination of management and Chinese proficiency examination, and acquires projects with large scale, strong brand effect and more locations throughout the country. it is expected to form coordination with campus education. (2) from the perspective of industry trend, the growth of adult college enrollment is higher than that of general college enrollment since 2018.
According to our analysis, the higher-than-expected growth of Aopeng's net profit on education is mainly due to: (1) the net interest rate has increased, before the net interest rate was less than 8%, but the company has done a lot of cost optimization and product diversification after the acquisition, and it is estimated that the current net interest rate is about 10%. (2) in terms of revenue growth, the company's online academic education was mainly aimed at more than 30 universities in 985211, and opened the Open University section and the private university section in 2021, bringing significant growth. In the long run, taking into account the higher net interest rate of du Xue net and the overall consolidation of Minsheng online, we judge that the online education sector is expected to grow by 20-30%. We expect the company's mid-2021 revenue to be 11.5-1.2 billion yuan, an increase of 112% over the same period last year, an adjusted net profit of 3.7-40 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47%, 59%, and an annual income of 23-2.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108-126%. The adjusted net profit was 6.5-700 million yuan, an increase of 50% RMB62% over the same period last year, mainly due to the significant contribution made by Aopeng and the higher-than-expected growth of online education. in addition, Chongqing Institute of Humanities and Technology is affected by the evaluation, and the volume and price increase is expected after the conversion of Paisi College of Chongqing Industrial and Commercial University and Yunnan Dianchi College, but we are cautiously optimistic about the growth of students this year.
Earlier, the company announced that it planned to buy 51% of Xiaoai Technology for no more than 80.06 million yuan to enter the human resources track. Xiaoai Technology is an Internet company that mainly provides Saas services for the human resources industry. It provides three-party online human resources service platform for human resources service companies, employers and individuals, and promises to contribute 15 million profits in the next three years.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion
Considering the higher-than-expected growth of online education business, the annual revenue in 21-22-23 was raised from 220.26 / 3 billion yuan to 240.28 / 3.3 billion yuan, and the adjusted net profit was increased from 6.4pm 7.6 / 880 million yuan to 6.7max 8.0 / 930 million yuan. The current 21/22/23PE is 6.6amp 5.5max 4.7 times, maintaining the "buy" rating, considering the downward shift of the industry valuation center. Adjust the 21-year target price to HK $1.87 (corresponding to 11 times PE in 21 years) and the last target price to HK $2.30 (corresponding to 13 times PE in 21 years).
Risk hint
The risk of educational policy change; the process of self-construction and M & An is not as expected; the number of students enrolled is less than expected; systemic risk