Bank of AmericaThe UK economic growth forecast was lowered, saying that the rebound curve is unlikely to be shaped like a “V”.

Chief British economist Robert Wood lowered his 2021 GDP growth forecast to 6.9%, lower than the previous forecast of 7.3%. According to official data released earlier, GDP growth in the second quarter was lower than the Bank of England forecast, reflecting the impact of labor and material shortages.

“GDP growth peaked in March and has been slowing almost continuously since then,” Wood wrote in a report on Thursday. “Most of the benefits brought about by the unblocking of the economy have passed, and the policy will soon change from a tailwind to a headwind.”

Wood said that the Bank of England's forecast that the inflation rate will rise to 4% is double the target level, which has led the market to predict a possible interest rate hike in the first half of 2022. However, with the end of the government's “job protection program”, the number of unemployed is expected to rise, which may delay the pace of interest rate hikes.

“If the economy growsNagawa“Inflation is lower than the Bank of England's forecast, and the unemployment rate exceeds expectations. We doubt policymakers will 'raise interest rates sooner, '” Wood said. If inflation rises sharply this winter, his own predictions of interest rate hikes in May 2022 may face more uncertainty.