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Original title: Goldman Sachs Group: the bullish power of the oil market shifts from demand to supply

Recently, Goldman Sachs Group said that the net impact of the Delta variant on global oil demand forecasts is still mild, and global oil demand will remain at 97.8 million b / d in the next two months, slightly lower than the actual demand of 98.4 million b / d in July.

It should be noted that in July, when OPEC + reached an agreement to gradually increase production, Goldman Sachs Group remained optimistic about the future of crude oil. In the latest report, Goldman Sachs Group continues to sing more:

“The latest supply data confirm our view that the bullish momentum in the oil market is shifting from demand to supply.The oil market is still in a state of weak demand because of concerns about the global impact of the next COVID-19 epidemic, but there is more and more evidence that structural supply is good. "

Specifically, we can take a look at the Asian market, which is the center of global crude oil demand. Foreign media have pointed out that several Asian refiners have asked to reduce their oil imports from Saudi Arabia next month as measures to control the Delta virus variant have depressed demand. According to refinery executives, at least four customers asked for less than the contract supply in September, three in Northeast Asia and one in Southeast Asia.

At present, Asian countries are expanding or implementing new traffic restrictions to curb the rapid spread of Delta virus. China has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, but as the world's largest importer of crude oil, it is still adopting an active anti-epidemic strategy. China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China's largest oil refiner, will cut the operating rate of some factories to 5 per cent this month from 10 per cent in July, according to foreign media data.

Asian refineries are still grappling with rising crude oil costs, while complex refining margins remain well below the five-year average. The weak demand environment in Asia is also likely to be reflected in the physical market.

On the macroeconomic front, Goldman Sachs Group predicts that in the next few quarters, the global economy will benefit from the benefits of vaccination, and as the fiscal stimulus is withdrawn, the US economy should slow down. The fall in inflation should keep the Fed loose for a long time.

Economist Goldman Sachs Group slightly lowered his forecast for the US unemployment rate to 4.1 per cent at the end of 2021 and expects the unemployment rate to fall further to 3.5 per cent in 2022. If this goal is achieved, it means that as the US economy recovers from the epidemic, the unemployment rate will fall to its lowest level in 50 years.

Jan Hatzius, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group, said the 3.5% unemployment rate would enable the economy to achieve full employment:

"We expect jobs to grow further and steadily for the rest of the year. One reason is that demand for labour is still very strong. We also see more room for job growth as the economy resumes, federal unemployment benefits expire and schools resume. "