Performance in line with expectations, gross profit margin, net profit increased significantly, expense rate slightly reduced the company's 21H1 revenue of 4.123 billion yuan (YoY+124.18%), return to the mother net profit of 738 million yuan (YoY+2491.34%), return to the mother net profit is in the forecast median (forecast 7.1-760 million yuan).
Among them, the company's 21Q2 revenue is 2.174 billion yuan (YoY+138.91%,QoQ+21.74%), the parent net profit is 427 million yuan (YoY+2489.46%,QoQ+37.30%), the company's 21H1 gross profit margin is 33.99% (YoY+16.07pp), the net profit rate is 17.89% (YoY+16.34pp), the three rates are 6.95% (YoY-4.02pp), and the net cash flow of operating activities is 933 million yuan (YoY+6981.86%), which is greatly improved compared with the same period last year.
The quantity and price of spandex products have risen, and viscose filament is affected by the overseas epidemic. 21H1's spandex revenue is 3.065 billion yuan (YoY+176.51%), and its gross profit margin is 40.97% (YoY+27.00pp). We expect the company to have full production and sales of 100,000 tons of spandex per year, excluding tax, the average price is about 610,000 yuan / ton. 21H1 viscose filament has a revenue of 903 million yuan (YoY+54.75%) and a gross profit margin of 12.97% (YoY-10.53pp). The company's viscose filament is mainly exported. Due to the intensification of the overseas epidemic and the sharp rise in sea freight prices since the second quarter, the gross profit margin has declined to a certain extent, with a total reserve of 10.6453 million yuan for inventory decline. At present, the price of spandex 40D has risen to 78000-80000 yuan / ton, the price difference has further expanded, we are optimistic about the 21H2 prosperity of the spandex industry.
The company is the domestic spandex and viscose filament leader, the project under construction is progressing smoothly, the company's existing spandex production capacity of 100,000 tons / year, ranking in the top three in China; viscose filament production capacity of 80,000 tons / year, is the absolute leader in China. The company's project under construction is progressing smoothly, with an annual output of 100000 tons of high-quality ultra-fine denier spandex fiber project, the first phase of 30,000 tons / year project, in the third quarter of 2020, the construction cycle is 18 months, and is expected to be put into production by the end of 2021; the annual output of 100000 tons of high-quality ultra-fine denier spandex fiber project Phase II 30,000 tons / year project, started in the second quarter of this year, the construction cycle is 18 months, is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2022.
Risk hints: the risk of substantial fluctuations in raw material prices; the risk that product demand is less than expected; and the risk that the progress of projects under construction is not as expected.
Investment advice: cover for the first time and give an "overweight" rating.
It is estimated that the net profit of homing in 21-23 years is 17.65, 14.08, 1.814 million, corresponding to EPS 1.40, 1.12, 1.44 yuan. At present, PE is 5.4, 6.8, 5.3X, covering for the first time, and given "overweight" rating.