Investment highlight
Covering the pioneering pharmaceutical industry for the first time-B (09939) rated the outperforming industry with a target price of HK $86.00. The reasons are as follows: the layout of androgen receptor is leading, and the core product Puclosamide is the first emergency authorized COVID-19 oral small molecule androgen receptor antagonist. The pharmaceutical industry is in the leading position in the field of androgen receptor in China. Proclomide is a leading second-generation oral androgen receptor antagonist in China. It is undergoing clinical development for tumor and COVID-19, and the clinical data for COVID-19 are excellent. Prolamide obtained the first emergency authorization for COVID-19 in Paraguay in July 2021, becoming the world's first oral small molecule androgen receptor antagonist for COVID-19, and we expect it to contribute more than 6 billion yuan to revenue in 2022. Freitain is about to enter phase 111, with a target patient pool of 10 million. Freitann is the second most advanced AR antagonist to be used in the treatment of androgenic alopecia and spasms, and we expect to enter phase 111in 2021. Because of its topical properties, Freitaen has a safety advantage over existing hair loss interventions because of its ability to reduce systemic exposure. In addition, the company has diversified sales channels through cooperation with pharmaceutical e-commerce. We expect this to enhance Freitaen's competitiveness in hair loss and acne. We expect Fritarn to start commercializing around 2023 and contribute 3.5 billion yuan in risk-adjusted sales in 2035.
Middle and early pipelines with diversified layout. In addition to AR antagonists, there are targeted ALK in the development of pharmaceutical industry.
MTOR and other early drug development pipelines with multiple targets / pathways, and layout of new macromolecular drugs such as PD-L1/TGF-B double antibodies. Among them, ALK-1 antibody has entered 11 phases of clinical practice, and we expect to be approved to market in 2023 and achieve a risk-adjusted sales income of 650 million yuan in 2030. We believe that the company's multi-target layout in the early drug research and development pipeline will help to enrich the future product portfolio and cover the diversity of tumor species, and has a potential synergy effect.
The biggest difference between us and the market is that we are optimistic about the potential safety advantages of local administration of Freitane and the potential competitive advantages brought about by the layout of pharmaceutical e-commerce channels.
Potential catalysts: clinical and approval progress of COVID-19 in the United States of America, overall survival data disclosure of prostate cancer, phase 11 clinical data disclosure of androgenic alopecia Fretaenne, and other pipeline product progress.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2021 to 2022 is-1.89yuan and 12.25yuan respectively. For the first time, we have covered giving the company an "outperform industry" rating, with a target price of HK $86.00 according to the DCF model, which is 20.3 per cent higher than the current share price.
Risk.
The clinical progress and data are lower than expected, the commercialization of products after launch is not as expected, the risk caused by the uncertain impact and duration of COVID-19, and the progress of overseas commercialization is not as expected.