The readings of this report are as follows:
The company's H1 revenue remains robust and its gross profit margin fluctuates moderately, judging that profits during the year may maintain moderate growth, and the commissioning of new capacity after 2022 will bring new growth momentum.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. According to the company's medium report, 2021H1's revenue was 902 million yuan, an increase of 50.16%, and its net profit was about 70 million, an increase of about 147%, which was in line with market expectations. In 2021-2023, the company's EPS forecast is 0.18, 0.22, 0.27, and the target price is 4.09, corresponding to the 2021-2023 PE is 22.72, 18.59, 15.15 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Sales steady repair, highlight the customer advantage. The revenue of Q2 company was 511 million yuan, an increase of 11.93%. Compared with the base period 2020Q2 affected by the epidemic, Q2 company showed a steady recovery trend, which was slightly lower than that of Q2 phase 547 million yuan in 2019, mainly due to the lack of production capacity growth. Under the relatively mild trend of durable consumption this year, the company has mainly benefited from binding downstream leading custom home enterprises to maintain a steady repair trend.
The fluctuation process of gross profit margin is judged to be mild. Q2's gross profit margin is 23.9%, which is about 0.9pct lower than the same period last year. In the context of the upside of raw materials, the company's gross profit margin is quite resilient. We think there are two main points:
Under the policy of selling products partly for pre-production and partly using inventory raw materials, and under the policy of moving average inventory accounting, the process of cost pressure transmission is mild; the growth rate of high-end products such as aldehyde-free products is higher, and it is judged that revenue accounts for more than 30%. Judge that the trend of mild fluctuations will continue in the second half of the year.
Capacity expansion and industrial chain layout support further growth. The new production capacity of the company's 500,000 square port base is expected to advance rapidly in 2021 and form an effective contribution in 2022. New Zealand may gradually try to promote and take the lead in timber trade and gradually accumulate resource advantages. the dynamic foundation for the company's growth.
Risk Tip: raw material prices fluctuate and new projects fall short of expectations.