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美股前瞻 | 泡沫有多大?“巴菲特指标”已爆表!美股达历史最贵

US stock outlook | How big is the bubble? The “Buffett Index” has hit the charts! US stocks are the most expensive in history

富途資訊 ·  Aug 11, 2021 20:45

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01.pngCow bull knock on the blackboard:

1. Isn't Powell the next chairman of the Federal Reserve? Experts Warn Replacing Powell Would Be a Mistake

2. “OPEC+ production is not enough!” White House calls for OPEC+ to increase oil production

3. Biden's trillion-dollar infrastructure plan was approved, and it is expected to officially enter the discussion process after September

4. How big is the US stock bubble? Buffett's favorite valuation indicator has already gone viral

5. Bank of America: Fundamentals cannot support a market capitalization of 200 billion dollars; Moderna has room for 75% decline

6. FuboTV rose before the market, and the company raised revenue and subscriber expectations for the third quarter and the whole year

7. Foreign media: Tesla may be eligible to receive electric vehicle charging funds from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act

8. The number of daily active users of Station B exceeded 65 million

Global macroscopic

  • Isn't Powell the next chairman of the Federal Reserve? Experts Warn Replacing Powell Would Be a Mistake

On Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal quoted people familiar with the matter as reporting that members of Biden's economic team generally support Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's re-election, but Powell will likely be replaced due to growing opposition from well-known Democratic senators including Warren. Progressive Democrats are dissatisfied with Powell's tendency to relax the financial regulations implemented after the 2008 financial crisis, believing that the Federal Reserve should be managed by someone more in sync with the Democratic Party. Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, believes an adjustment is unlikely. He warned that replacing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell would be a mistake and that the market might react negatively to the change.

  • “OPEC+ production is not enough!” White House calls for OPEC+ to increase oil production

The Biden administration said that during the critical period of global economic recovery, OPEC+ should increase oil production and called on regulators to strictly monitor prices in the US gasoline market. The White House said that during the critical period of global economic recovery, the OPEC+ agreement on oil production reached in July was far from sufficient. The agreement decided to increase production by 400,000 barrels per month starting in August and continuing until 2022.A senior White House official said Biden is aware that gasoline prices will put pressure on household budgets, and he hopes his administration can do whatever it takes to help lower oil prices.

  • Biden's trillion-dollar infrastructure plan passed, and it is expected to officially enter the discussion process after September

The bill mainly focuses on “hard” infrastructure projects. The largest portion of the outgoing—$110 billion—will go to projects such as roads and bridges, while the rest will go to passenger and freight railways, transit systems, airports, ports and waterways, and power grid upgrades.

  • Helping green development! Rumor has it that the US Biden administration plans to make airlines use 100% renewable fuels by 2050

According to reports, the Biden administration is currently considering setting a target date of 2050 for airlines to use 100% renewable aviation fuel as part of its broader effort to combat climate change. Today, the total global demand for aviation fuel is about 200 billion liters per year, and according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates, sustainable aviation fuel production will be only 100 million to 120 million liters in 2021, accounting for only 0.05% of total demand.

  • The US CPI increased 5.4% year on year in July, and is expected to be 5.3%, compared to the previous value of 5.4%. The US core CPI increased 4.3% year on year in July. The forecast is 4.3%, compared to the previous value of 4.5%.

The agency said that the increase in consumer prices in the US in July was relatively moderate, and did not completely relieve the pressure on market sentiment caused by rising costs. Faced with tight supply and surging demand, companies are raising prices for goods and services as cost pressures increase. Continued challenges such as raw material shortages, shipping bottlenecks, and recruitment difficulties are likely to continue to exert wider upward pressure on prices in the coming months.

  • How big is the US stock bubble? Buffett's favorite valuation indicator has already gone viral

“Stock god” Buffett once wrote in Forbes magazine in December 2001 that it is possible to determine whether there is a bubble in US stocks by using the ratio of the total market value of the stock market to GDP as an indicator. Since then, “US stock market capitalization/GDP” has been called Buffett's indicator. Currently, the “Buffett Index” of the US stock market has reached 200%, higher than the peak during the dot-com bubble in early 2000, and even surpassed the peak on the eve of the “Great Depression” in 1929, which means that US stocks are currently at the most expensive level in history.

  • Before the market on Wednesday, the three major US futures indices rose in unison

Hot news

  • Bank of America: Fundamentals can't support a market capitalization of 200 billion dollars; Moderna has room for 75% decline

Bank of America said in a report on Tuesday,$Moderna (MRNA.US) $The year-to-date increase is over 360%, but a sharp decline is likely because the company's market capitalization of nearly $200 billion is “fundamentally unreasonable.” The bank reiterated its target price of $115, which means there is 75% downside compared to Tuesday's closing price of $456.76 per share.

  • Foreign media: Tesla may be eligible for electric vehicle charging funding from the bipartisan infrastructure bill

According to Teslarati reports,$Tesla (TSLA.US) $Steps are currently being taken to qualify for $7.5 billion in funding for the construction of electric vehicle charging stations in the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Biden's bipartisan infrastructure bill passed 69 to 30 in the Senate on Tuesday. The Act lists two provisions that companies must meet in order to be eligible for funding. First, companies must provide unpatented charging connectors that meet industry safety standards. Second, companies must provide payment methods that all members of the public can use. Earlier, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that its network of supercharging stations would soon be opened to non-Tesla cars.

  • JD Logistics and Volvo Cars reach strategic cooperation

August 10,$JD (JD.US) $With global luxury car brands$Volvo (VLVLY.US) $A strategic cooperation agreement was formally signed. According to the agreement, the two sides will adhere to the common value concept of providing customers with the ultimate service, carry out in-depth cooperation in various fields such as national after-sales supply chain network planning, predictive adjustments, and terminal distribution, and work together to set a new benchmark for integrated after-sales supply chain services for middle and high-end car companies.

  • Environmental groups call on BHP Billiton to close rather than sell its oil and gas business

Market Forces, an environmental protection campaign organization, said that as the world's largest mining company,$BHP Billiton (BHP.US) $Plans to sell billions of dollars in fossil fuel assets should be abandoned and related businesses should be shut down responsibly.

Last month, according to people familiar with the matter, BHP Billiton is considering exiting the oil and gas industry and reviewing various options, including asset sales. In June of this year, the company agreed to sell one-third of its shares in a coal mine in Colombia, while also promoting the sale of an Australian thermal coal business and some metallurgical coal assets.

  • Rong Lianyun's Q2 revenue was 274 million yuan, an increase of 47.9% over the previous year, and the performance further exceeded expectations

August 11, China's leading multi-service cloud communication service provider$Ronglian Cloud (RAAS.US) $Unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2021 were published. In the second quarter, Ronglianyun's revenue was 274 million yuan, an increase of 47.9% over the previous year, an increase of 33.9% over the previous month, and gross margin reached 43.1%. Following the first quarter, the performance exceeded expectations once again.

  • fuboTV rose before the market, and the company raised revenue and subscriber expectations for the third quarter and the whole year

Financial reports show that$fuboTV Inc. (FUBO.US) $Q2 revenue was US$131 million, compared to US$44.2 million in the same period last year, an increase of 196% over the previous year. The number of subscribers reached 681,721, up 138% year on year and 15% month on month. The average monthly revenue per user (ARPU) was $71.43, up 30% year over year; the advertising business's monthly ARPU was $8.70, up 62% year over year.

  • Artificial intelligence lending platform Upstart Holdings' second-quarter revenue exceeded expectations, and stock prices rose before the market

Artificial intelligence lending platform Upstart Holdings, Inc., announced second-quarter revenue of 194 million US dollars, exceeding expectations. The company's second-quarter GAAP earnings were $0.39 per share and adjusted earnings per share of $0.62. Revenue for the third quarter is expected to be $205 million to $215 million.

  • Coinbase reports earnings exceeding expectations, stock price rises

cryptocurrency exchange$Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN.US) $The announcement of results for the second quarter of this year was far better than expected.According to Coinbase's financial report,The adjusted earnings per share were $345 and revenue was $2.23 billion.Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv previously predicted earnings of $2.33 per share and revenue of $1.78 billion.

  • The number of daily active users of Station B exceeded 65 million

$BILI.US (BILI.US) $The number of active daily users has recently surpassed 65 million, surpassing Youku to become the third largest video platform after iQiyi and Tencent Video. However, looking at the video industry as a whole, this figure is still far from the two major short video platforms, Douyin and Kuaishou. In terms of user usage time, Station B has stabilized at over 80 minutes, which is comparable to Kuaishou and lower than Douyin for over 100 minutes.

  • On the fifth anniversary of the establishment of Huya Company, Dong Rongjie: Huya will run faster in the next five years

in$Tiger Tooth (HUYA.US) $On the occasion of the 5th anniversary, Dong Rongjie, CEO of Tiger Tooth, said that 5-year-old Tiger Tooth is growing rapidly. He is just a teenager and can look forward to the future. In the face of the ever-changing market, Huya will consolidate its advantage on the live game circuit. At the same time, it continues to promote innovation in business forms, promote better integration of video and other forms with live streaming; continue to promote product technology innovation, give full play to Tiger's accumulated advantages in the fields of virtual images, live streaming AI technology, etc., and generate greater value through deep integration with the live streaming business.

  • Jianan Technology strategically invests in image display chip manufacturer Pixelworks

$Canaan Technology (CAN.US) $Announced a strategic investment in Pixelworks, a wholly owned subsidiary of Pixelworks, a provider of innovative video and display processing solutions, in China, in Point by Point Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. The strategic investment also includes four companies: Shanghai Chaoyue Moore Equity Investment Fund Partnership (limited partnership), Qingdao Chaoyue Zhixin Venture Capital Partnership (limited partnership), VeriSilicon Microelectronics (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., and Beijing Yitang Changhou Display Chip Venture Capital Center (limited partnership).

Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks

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