China Everbright Green Environmental Protection (01257.HK): the net profit of 1H21 is-15% higher than that of the same period last year to promote strategic transformation.

中金公司 · Aug 10, 2021 00:00

　　1H21业绩符合我们预期

　　公司公布1H21业绩：收入43.2亿港币，较去年同期增长1.72%6；归母净利润7.0亿港币，同比下降14.62%，我们认为业绩下滑主要由于：1）公司进行战略转变，注重资产运营质量，生物质项目新建放缓导致建设收入大幅下降；2）生物质原材料价格上涨；3）危废处理费下滑。公司派发中期股息每股0.07港币（去年同期0.08港币）。

　　运营收入大幅提升，收入结构有所优化。公司上半年收入与去年同期基本持平：1）生物质板块收入同比下降8.8%6至33.2亿港币，但收入结构优化明显，上网电量及蒸汽销售增加带动运营收入同比增长27%至24.4亿港币，占生物质板块收入比重大幅提升至73%；2）危固废板块收入同比增长70%至7.6亿港币，主要由于报告期内贡献收入的在建项目数目增加；3）环境修复板块疫情影响逐步消除，收入同比增长113%至1.3亿港币；4）光伏发电及风电收入稳步增长，同比提升11.7%至1.1亿港而。

　　盈利能力同比持平，1H21公司EBITDA率为37.7%：生物质板块EBITDA率同比下降1.7ppt至34.3%，主要系公司对生物质新增项目较为谨慎，在建规模项目减小，以及生物质原材料价格上涨所致；危废板块EBITDA率同比提升5.1ppt至48.1%，主要系贡献收入的在建项目数量增加所致。

　　发展趋势

　　轻重并举推动战略转型，现金流有望修复。公司战略转型持续推进，新增生物质项目建设放缓，环境修复业务公司计划将优先以轻资产模式进行，我们认为有利于缓解资本开支压力，并改善公司现金流。另一方面，公司在生物质项目上积极拓展现金流更佳的蒸汽业务，我们认为有望进一步优化现金流。

　　生物质项目具备较高碳减排效率，或拓宽公司盈利来源。近期碳交易市场稳步推进，相关政策的出台进一步完善交易机制，我们认为生物质项目能够有效减少碳排放。根据公司测算，当前在手生物质项目每年约减少328万吨碳排放，我们预计公司或通过CCER交易进一步拓宽盈利来源，公司价值有望迎来重估。盈利预测与估值维持2021/2022年13.28/13.70亿港币净利润不变。当前股价对应2021/2022年4.1倍/4.0倍市盈率。维持跑赢行业评级和4.10港元目标价，对应6.4倍2021年市盈率和6.2倍2022年市盈率，较当前股价有56.5%的上行空间。

　　风险

　　项目投产低于预期，补贴发放不及时。

1H21's performance is in line with our expectations.

The company announced 1H21 results: revenue of HK $4.32 billion, an increase of 1.72% over the same period last year; and net profit of HK $700 million, down 14.62% from the same period last year. We believe that the decline is mainly due to: 1) the company's strategic change, focusing on asset operation quality, and the slowdown in new construction of biomass projects led to a sharp decline in construction income; 2) rising prices of biomass raw materials; and 3) a decline in hazardous waste disposal fees. The company pays an interim dividend of HK $0.07 per share (HK $0.08 for the same period last year).

Operating income has increased significantly, and the revenue structure has been optimized. The company's revenue in the first half of the year is basically the same as the same period last year: 1) the revenue from the biomass sector decreased 8.8% year-on-year to HK $3.32 billion, but the income structure was optimized obviously. the increase in online electricity and steam sales led to a 27% increase in operating income to HK $2.44 billion compared with the same period last year, accounting for 73% of the income of the biomass sector. 2) the revenue from the hazardous waste sector increased by 70 per cent year-on-year to HK $760 million, mainly due to an increase in the number of projects under construction that contributed income during the reporting period; 3) the impact of the epidemic in the environmental rehabilitation sector was gradually eliminated, and revenue increased by 113 per cent year-on-year to HK $130 million; 4) revenue from photovoltaic and wind power increased steadily, rising 11.7 per cent to 110 million Hong Kong dollars over the same period last year.

The profitability was the same as the same period last year, and the EBITDA rate of 1H21 Company was 37.7%; the EBITDA rate of biomass sector decreased by 1.7ppt to 34.3% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the company's caution about new biomass projects, the reduction of projects under construction, and the increase in the price of biomass raw materials; the EBITDA rate of hazardous waste sector increased by 5.1ppt to 48.1% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in the number of projects under construction that contributed income.

Development trend

Both weight and weight promote the strategic transformation, and the cash flow is expected to be repaired. With the continuous progress of the company's strategic transformation, the construction of new biomass projects has slowed down, and the environmental remediation business company plans to give priority to the light asset model, which we believe will help to ease the pressure on capital expenditure and improve the company's cash flow. On the other hand, the company is actively expanding the steam business with better cash flow in biomass projects, and we believe that it is expected to further optimize the cash flow.

Biomass projects have higher carbon emission reduction efficiency, or broaden the source of corporate profits. Recently, with the steady progress of the carbon trading market and the introduction of relevant policies to further improve the trading mechanism, we believe that biomass projects can effectively reduce carbon emissions. According to the company's estimates, the current hand-made materials projects reduce carbon emissions by about 3.28 million tons per year, and we expect the company to further expand its profit sources through CCER trading, and the company's value is expected to be revalued. The profit forecast and valuation will remain unchanged at HK $13.28 / 1.37 billion in 2021 / 2022. The current share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.1 / 4.0 in 2021 / 2022. Maintain an outperform industry rating and a target price of HK $4.10, corresponding to 6.4 times 2021 earnings and 6.2 times 2022 earnings, with 56.5% upside compared to current share prices.

Risk

The project was put into production lower than expected, and the subsidy was not issued in time.

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中国光大绿色环保(01257.HK)：1H21净利润同比-15% 轻重并举推动战略转型

China Everbright Green Environmental Protection (01257.HK): the net profit of 1H21 is-15% higher than that of the same period last year to promote strategic transformation.

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