TCL Electronics (1070.HK): The worst may be over

安信國際 · Aug 9, 2021 00:00

　　报告摘要

　　公司公布2021年上半年业绩。公司2021年上半年营业收入为349.3亿港元，同比增长103.7%，主要是由于面板涨价，公司同步提升ASP所致。归母净利润达10.4亿港币，但主要是由卖出晶晨半导体的股份所带来的一次性贡献。扣非后的归母净利润仅为2.45亿港元，同比减少45.9%，但在我们预期之内。根据我们的推算，公司上半年大部分扣非净利润是由互联网业务贡献的，而硬件业务对净利润的贡献较少。

　　究其原因，我们认为是2020年下半年由于上游面板持续涨价，而公司的提价速度无法跟上，因此较大程度上影响了硬件业务尤其是品牌电视业务的毛利率和净利率。

　　TCL电视业务增速放缓。2021年上半年，TCL电视全球销售量达1,127万台，同比增长11.8%。公司产品结构持续优化，其中智能电视销售量占比同比增长1.5个百分点至91.6%；4K电视销售量占比保持在53.2%的较高水平，而量子点电视销售量占比同比增长3.1个百分点至5.0%。分区域来看，海外部分，TCL电视销售量同比增长22.2%，其中一季度同比增长43%，二季度同比增长7%；电视平均售价同比增长32.0%。国内部分，在全行业衰退的大背景下，公司上半年电视销量亦有所下滑，但表现好于竞争对手，市场份额同比提升1.1个百分点至13.9%，排名第三；零售额市场份额达13.2%，排名跃升至全国第二。

　　互联网业务继续高增长。海外部分，2021年上半年公司实现收入1.21亿港币，同比略降2.9%，主要收入贡献仍然来源于装机费。国内部分，雷鸟科技重点发力会员业务和增值业务，上半年实现收入6.0亿港元，同比增长51.3%，ARPU达31.4港元，同比增长31.5%。其中，雷鸟科技的会员业务收入、增值业务收入和广告业务收入同比分别增长75.9%、44.8%和13.0%。我们持续看好公司互联网业务未来的发展，因为其增速快、利润率高、边际效益明显。预计到2023年，这项业务将贡献超过50%的净利润。

　　投资建议：展望下半年，我们认为对公司盈利能力影响甚大的面板涨价问题，随着面板厂商新产能的投放和TCL电视产品结构的优化及终端价格的提升，自2021年下半年开始将逐步缓解，而公司业绩上和股价上的压力将陆续缓和。我们依然看好TCL电子中长期的成长，公司“硬件+互联网”双轮驱动的成长路径依然十分清晰。考虑到公司终端价格的调整和产品结构的优化需要时间，我们下调了公司的盈利预测，预计2021-2022年扣非归母净利润分别为6.05亿和11.6亿港币，给予2022年的目标价6.80港元，维持“买入”评级。

　　风险提示：1）海外电视需求下滑；2）国内竞争加剧；3）面板价格大幅波动。

Summary of the report

The company announces results for the first half of 2021. The company's operating income in the first half of 2021 was HK $34.93 billion, an increase of 103.7% over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in panel prices and the simultaneous promotion of ASP. The return net profit reached HK $1.04 billion, but it was mainly an one-off contribution from the sale of Jingchen Semiconductor's shares. The net profit after deducting Fei is only HK $245 million, a decrease of 45.9% over the same period last year, but within our expectations. According to our calculation, most of the deducted non-net profit of the company in the first half of the year is contributed by the Internet business, while the hardware business contributes less to the net profit.

We believe that the reason is that the price of the upstream panel continues to rise in the second half of 2020, and the speed of price increase of the company can not keep up, so it greatly affects the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the hardware business, especially the brand TV business.

The growth rate of TCL TV business has slowed. In the first half of 2021, global sales of TCL TVs reached 11.27 million units, an increase of 11.8% over the same period last year. The company's product structure continued to optimize, with smart TV sales up 1.5% year-on-year to 91.6%. The proportion of 4K TV sales remained at a high level of 53.2%, while quantum dot TV sales increased 3.1% year-on-year to 5.0%. From a regional point of view, overseas sales of TCL televisions increased by 22.2% compared with the same period last year, including 43% in the first quarter and 7% in the second quarter, and the average selling price of TVs increased by 32.0%. In the domestic part, in the context of the industry-wide recession, the company's TV sales also declined in the first half of the year, but performed better than its competitors, with its market share rising 1.1 percentage points year on year to 13.9%, ranking third; retail market share reached 13.2%, leaping to the second place in the country.

Internet business continues to grow at a high rate. In the overseas part, the company achieved revenue of 121 million Hong Kong dollars in the first half of 2021, a slight decrease of 2.9% compared with the same period last year. In the domestic part, Thunderbird focused on membership services and value-added services, with revenue of HK $600 million in the first half of the year, an increase of 51.3% over the same period last year and an increase of 31.5% over the same period last year. Among them, Thunderbird's member business income, value-added business revenue and advertising business revenue increased by 75.9%, 44.8% and 13.0% respectively compared with the same period last year. We continue to be optimistic about the future development of the company's Internet business because of its rapid growth, high profit margins and obvious marginal benefits. The business is expected to contribute more than 50 per cent of net profit by 2023.

Investment advice: looking forward to the second half of the year, we believe that the panel price increase, which has a great impact on the company's profitability, will gradually ease from the second half of 2021 with the introduction of new production capacity of panel manufacturers and the optimization of TCL TV product structure and the improvement of terminal prices, while the pressure on the company's performance and stock price will ease gradually. We are still optimistic about the medium-and long-term growth of TCL Electronics, and the company's "hardware + Internet" two-wheel drive growth path is still very clear. Taking into account the time required for the adjustment of the company's terminal price and the optimization of the product structure, we have lowered the company's profit forecast and estimated that the non-return net profit for 2021-2022 will be HK $605 million and HK $1.16 billion respectively, with a target price of HK $6.80. maintain a "buy" rating.

Risk tips: 1) declining demand for overseas televisions; 2) intensified domestic competition; 3) large fluctuations in panel prices.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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TCL电子(1070.HK)：最坏的情况可能已经过去

TCL Electronics (1070.HK): The worst may be over

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