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摩根大通下调10年和30年期美国国债收益率的年底预测

JPMorgan Chase & Co lowered his year-end forecast for 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields

新浪財經 ·  Aug 9, 2021 20:07

JPMorgan Chase & CoStrategists cut their forecast for Treasury yields at the end of the year as the upside for yields has narrowed in the coming months.

JPMorgan Chase & Co lowered his forecast for 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields by 20 basis points to 1.75% and 2.40%, respectively.

"gradually, we have learned that FOMC's tolerance for inflationary overshoot is not as large or lasting as we previously understood," strategists such as Jay Barry wrote in a report on Aug. 6.

The Fed's latest economic forecast means that there is a "significant risk" of tightening monetary policy in 2022, so inflation at 2% will be shorter than previously expected.

In addition, the phrase "at the upcoming meeting" increases the risk that the Fed will announce a reduction in November, rather than the December meeting predicted by JPMorgan Chase & Co, and recent comments by Clarida and Waller seem to reinforce this view

Given that developments suggest that the Fed may cut its weight and eventually raise interest rates earlier than expected, "the upper limit of long-term inflation expectations should be slightly lower than" previous expectations.

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