The readings of this report are as follows:
With the rapid release of the core drugs zabutinib and tirelizumab, the internationalization of the products and overseas sales are expected to exceed market expectations and maintain the overweight rating.
Summary:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. 2021Q2's total revenue was US $150 million, up 128.7% from the same period last year; product revenue was US $139 million, up 111.3% from the same period last year; the net loss was US $483 million, with a year-on-year increase of US $148 million; cash and equivalents at the end of the quarter were US $4.39 billion, down 8.5% from the same period last year, in line with expectations. Maintain projected income of US $12.76,12.04 and 1.642 billion for 2021-2023. Taking into account the smooth progress of research and development and sound operation, according to the absolute valuation of DCF, the target price was raised to HK $240.7 (+ 13.3) to maintain the overweight rating.
The core products are released quickly, and the overall revenue is in line with expectations. Tirelizumab (PD-1), zebutenil and Dinomab newly entered medical insurance in March, and the number of hospitalization was about 13 times, 28 times and 23 times higher than that before medical insurance, respectively. Q2 PD-1 revenue was 75 million US dollars, up 111% from the same period last year, and the gap with the leading sales scale of the industry gradually narrowed; Zabutinib earned 42 million US dollars, up 503% from the same period last year; Dinomab earned 3 million US dollars; Pamipali was approved in May, with Q2 sales of 2 million US dollars; PD-1 and Zebutini released slightly more than expected, while Dinomab was slightly lower than expected, which is expected to be related to channel inventory digestion. As competition for generics intensified, BMS licensed products generated revenue of $13 million, down 54 per cent from a year earlier. During the reporting period, the cooperation income of US $11 million from the down payment with Novartis PD-1 was recognized.
The strength of R & D has been verified again. The R & D cost of Q2 was US $356 million, an increase of 24.5% over the same period last year, mainly due to late pipeline promotion and project introduction. The phase 3 clinical trial of zabutinib in the first-line treatment of CLL/SLL achieved positive results in the mid-term analysis. MZL with at least one CD20 treatment was first reviewed by FDA, and the date of PDUFA was September 19. PD-1 1L non-squamous cell NSCLC and 2L liver cancer were approved in China, and 2L esophageal squamous cell carcinoma was submitted to NDA in China. Novartis overseas BLA; Palmipari is expected to be approved for 3L ovarian cancer treatment in China by the end of 2021. The acquisition of 42 acres of land in the United States will be used to build commercial biological agent production, clinical research and development centers and drug vigilance innovation bases, which are expected to be completed in 2023 and are expected to further expand overseas markets. On June 28, Kechuangban IPO passed the review of the listing Committee, and if implemented smoothly, it will help the company's research and development.
Catalyst: the release of drugs exceeded expectations, and the curative effect of the new products under development was outstanding.
Risk hint: research and development failure; strategic cooperation is not as expected; Science and Technology Innovation Board IPO is not as expected