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美股前瞻 | 高盛警告:需为美股大幅调整做好准备!贝莱德:美国经济增速料Q3见顶

US stock outlook | Goldman Sachs warns: We need to prepare for major adjustments in US stocks! BlackRock: US economic growth is expected to peak in Q3

富途資訊 ·  Aug 4, 2021 20:38

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Global macro

  • Blackrock: the US economic growth forecast Q3 has reached its peak, and cyclical stocks and value stocks should be withdrawn.

Blackrock, the world's largest asset manager, said on Tuesday that investors should withdraw money from value and cyclical stocks and invest in so-called premium stocks as the market expects US economic growth to peak in the third quarter.

Gargi Chaudhuri, head of investment strategy at Blackrock US iShares, said on Tuesday, "although there is still room for growth in investments that benefit from overall growth, such as cyclical and value industries. But we think it's time to add quality stocks (or companies that will benefit after the peak of the recovery) to the portfolio. "

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  • 187 days without a 5% callback! Goldman Sachs Group warns: we need to prepare for the sharp adjustment of US stocks.

As US stocks continue to hit new highs, many Wall Street investment bank analysts warn of the risk of a correction. Goldman Sachs Group strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann also joined the ranks. Goldman Sachs Group warned that the market began to become quite unstable after the S & P 500 had not fallen 5 per cent in 187 days, one of the longest in the past 100 years. As stocks and bonds become more expensive, multi-asset portfolios are increasingly vulnerable to interest rates and economic growth shocks, he said.

  • How terrible is the storm of short selling in US debt? Hedge fund Alphadyne lost a whopping $1.5 billion

Hedge fund Alphadyne Asset Management has become one of the biggest victims of the global bond market's short run, with its $12 billion macro trading strategy mistakenly betting that US bond yields will rise, according to people familiar with the matter this week. Alphadyne International, the macro hedge fund's flagship fund, fell about 10 per cent after a collapse in yields in July, with cumulative losses likely to reach $1.5 billion (10 billion yuan), the biggest loss ever recorded by a macro hedge fund. The fund's strategy has not lost money since it was founded in 2006.

  • Japan suffered its biggest epidemic crisis since last year, and a large amount of money poured into safe-haven assets

Due to the accelerated spread of the Delta virus, there were more than 14000 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Japan in a single day, a record increase in a single day. Toshio Nakagawa, president of the Japanese Medical Association, said on Tuesday that Japan is facing the biggest crisis since the first wave of the epidemic last year. Increased panic led to a flood of money back into safe havens, pushing the yield on 10-year JGBs to zero again nearly eight months later.

  • Beat Bezos, the head of LVMH regained the position of the richest man in the world.

Bernard Arnault, chief executive of French luxury group LVMH, narrowly surpassed Amazon.Com Inc founder Jeff Bezos and returned to the top of the world's richest man list, according to the latest Forbes rich list released recently.

As of Monday, Arnault's personal wealth was $195.8 billion, while Bezos's personal wealth was $192.6 billion, with a difference of just $3.2 billion.

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  • Investment tycoon Duan Yongping rarely increased his position today, Tencent.

This morning, Duan Yongping wrote on his social platform account "Avenue Invisible I have style", "Today I bought a little bit of Tencent, and then I bought more." The post also received nearly 300 retweets and more than 2000 likes. Duan Yongping's increase in positions against the trend has undoubtedly given many investors confidence. During the collapse of Tencent in 2018, Duan Yongping began to buy Tencent in small quantities. Later, Duan Yongping also said, "Tencent's adjustment gave me the opportunity to buy Tencent." It is worth noting that Duan Yongping has published a lot of understandings about games and Tencent in the past. He believes that good games are definitely good business, but general games are not necessarily; few game companies make money, but game companies that make money can make a lot of money, such as NetEase, Inc and Tencent.

  • The futures of the three major US stock indexes fell slightly before Wednesday's trading.

Hot news

  • BoCom International: reiterated BABA's "buy" rating, reducing the target price by 6.3% to $308

BoCom International released a research report, reiterating$BABA (BABA.US) $According to the "Buy" rating, the target price of H shares was lowered by 6.3% from HK $316 to HK $296, while the target price of US stocks was lowered from US $329 to US $308. The company's current share price is considered attractive, equivalent to 23 times earnings in 2021 and 8 times earnings on ecommerce platforms.

  • Yuejie successfully declared the first clinical trial of e-cigarettes in China, RLX Technology Inc. went higher before trading.

E-cigarette companies listed in the United States$RLX Technology Inc. (RLX.US) $Yueke announced that its declared e-cigarette clinical trials have been successfully registered with the China Clinical trial Registration Center (ChiCTR) and the World Health Organization International Clinical trial Registration platform (WHO ICTRP). This is the first clinical research project of e-cigarette in China that has passed ethical review and expert review and has been approved to be carried out, which fills the gap in clinical research of e-cigarette in China.

RLX Technology Inc. continued to rise before the session, and now the increase has widened to 11%, temporarily reporting US $5.40.

  • General Motors Co Q2 has revenue of US $34.167 billion and net profit of US $2.779 billion.

$General Motors Co (GM.US) $Q2 has revenue of $34.2 billion, market expectations of $30.895 billion, compared with $16.778 billion in the same period last year; net profit of $2.836 billion, market expectations of $1.782 billion, and a loss of $806 million in the same period last year. General Motors Co raised its full-year financial guidance to expect full-year adjusted earnings per share of $4.50-$6.40; full-year adjusted earnings before interest and tax are expected to be $11.5 billion-$13.5 billion, compared with previously expected $10 billion-$11 billion.

General Motors Co was down 3 per cent before trading.

  • The price of Tesla, Inc. Model S long-lasting edition in China has been raised again by 30, 000 yuan. The latest price is 859990 yuan.

$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $The price of the long-lasting version of Model S increased by 30, 000 yuan to 859990 yuan from 829990 yuan, while the price of the high-end Plaid version remained unchanged at 1.05999 million yuan, according to the Chinese website. The current long-lasting version of Model S was officially published on Tesla, Inc. 's official website of China on January 28 this year. The price announced at that time was 799990 yuan. Today, although the vehicle has not yet been officially delivered, this is the second price increase. On July 16, the price of the long-lasting version of Model S was adjusted to 829990 yuan from the earlier 799990 yuan, an increase of 30, 000 yuan.

  • Alphabet Inc-CL C is accused of conspiring with Facebook Inc to manipulate advertising prices.

According to reports,$Alphabet Inc-CL C (GOOG.US) $Be charged with in an antitrust lawsuit$Facebook Inc (FB.US) $Strike a reciprocal deal that gives it an advantage in virtual auctions that determine whose ads appear where. In a proposed class action lawsuit, two Massachusetts companies said the deal allowed Alphabet Inc-CL C to maintain the dominance of the online advertising market, crowd out other advertisers and limit the revenue of online content publishers. According to the indictment, the agreement "limits the innovation of the title bidding system to their own advantage and hinders competition", in violation of the anti-monopoly law.

  • XIAOMI and InterDigital end Patent lawsuit and reach Global Patent Licensing Agreement

$InterDigital (IDCC.US) $It has reached a settlement with the XIAOMI Group (01810.HK) and signed a multi-year, global, non-exclusive patent licensing agreement, according to a statement issued on Aug. 3 local time. The license covers XIAOMI cellular mobile devices under InterDigital's necessary patents for standards related to cellular wireless (including 3G, 4G and 5G), WiFi and HEVC video technology. InterDigital and XIAOMI have agreed to dismiss all pending patent and other lawsuits between the two companies.

  • Sony Group Corp announced Q1 financial results, earnings per share showed year-on-year growth

August fourth$Sony Group Corp (SONY.US) $Announced financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2021. The company's Q1 attributable to shareholders' net profit was 211.83 billion yen, compared with 193.58 billion yen a year earlier, and earnings per share was 169.22 yen, compared with 155.27 yen a year earlier, according to the data. Looking ahead to the 2021 fiscal year ending March 31, 2022, the company expects net profit attributable to shareholders of 700 billion yen, up from the previous forecast of 660 billion yen, operating profit of 980 billion yen, up from the previous forecast of 930 billion yen, and continued projected sales of 9.7 trillion yen.

Sony Group Corp rose 0.55% before trading.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Edit / emily

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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