Rating: BUY (Initiation)
Target price: RMB99.98
Share price (28 Jul): RMB65.19
Market Cap (RMBm): 3,094.1
Up/downside: 53.4%
We initiate coverage with a BUY call and PT of RMB99.98. Qingyun uses differentiated market positioning to minimize capital investments so as to achieve shorter profit cycles, benchmarking itself against US cloud service peers. We are optimistic about the company’s future growth.
Unified underlying architecture for public, private and hybrid cloud markets
Qingyun offers cloud products and services, delivering cloud products mainly through private-sector cloud architecture and its cloud services through public-sector architecture. With the two segments to use a unified technology system in the future, the company is well positioned to benefit with its private-sector and public-sector cloud and non-cloud architecture. Its strategic hybrid cloud buildout provides efficient and fast cloud solutions.
Public and private sector cloud differentiation
In market distribution, Qingyun has little competitive advantage in public-sector cloud, but rather, it holds an edge in private-sector cloud. Its three core products of hyperconverged systems, enterprise cloud platforms and software defined storage products are market leading. Qingyun aims to incorporate public cloud into its hybrid cloud strategy, so as to maximize its strengths and reduce its weaknesses. It would offer a consistent experience for clients in hybrid cloud solutions that have unique advantages over competitors.
To engage with the next generation of cloud computing, the company had begun to build out multi-cloud management platforms, container platforms, distributed databases, IOT and edge computing platforms and other strategic products since 2017. While not bringing in large-scale revenue yet, current revenue growth numbers indicate this would become a key revenue growth area. In container platforms, it has invested a lot of resources and holds technology patents that are recognized by the market at the product level. Qingyun aims to continue with its container technology buildout.
All chips set in place for stable future growth
The company bases its hybrid cloud strategy on its private-sector cloud know-how to make it highly compatible with China’s cloud computing market structure. Qingyun tracks three main trends in the cloud computing industry: independent controllability, native cloud and industrial cloud. It uses differentiated market positioning to minimize capital investments so as to achieve a shorter profit cycle. We expect future growth, benchmarking with comparable cloud service companies in the US.
Valuation and risks
We expect revenue of RMB587m/803m/1.09bn, up 37.0%/36.7%/35.2% yoy; and gross profit margin of 15.17%/20.05%/ 24.93% in 2021/22/23E. We expect net losses of RMB141m/101m/79m in 2021/22/23E. Factoring in average peer PS and the growth potential of strategic container software, we assign to Qingyun a PS of 8x in 2021E, corresponding to a target price of RMB99.98. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. Risks include: 1) intensifying competition in the cloud computing industry; 2) with continuous investments in R&D and sales, the company could remain in a loss state for several years; 3) uncertainties related to the pandemic; 4) commercialization of strategic software products falling short of expectations; 5) core technology risks; 6) internal control risks; and 7) stock price fluctuations in the short term.
免责声明(DISCLAIMER):
此文件仅发给指定收件人或机构。其内容可能包含某种享有法律特权或者需要保密的信息。对于任何未经本公司授权而对本文件所载内容进行使用、披露、分发、变更之行为及由此产生的后果，天风国际证券集团有限公司及其联属公司和附属公司（「天风集团」）概不承担任何责任。如您并非此文件的指定收件人或机构，请立即通知天风集团，并立即销毁此文件。谢谢合作。
This message is intended only for the individual or entity to which it is addressed. It may contain legally privileged and/or confidential information. TF International Securities Group Limited and its affiliates and subsidiaries (「TF Group」) does not accept liability for the unauthorized use, disclosure, distribution and/or alteration of any information it contains or the consequences thereof. If you are not an intended recipient, please inform TF Group and destroy this message immediately. Thank you.
評級：買入(啟動)
目標價：99.98元人民幣
股價(7月28日)：65.19元人民幣
市值(人民幣)：3094.1
上漲/下跌：53.4%
我們以買入電話和99.98元人民幣的PT開始承保。青雲利用差異化的市場定位，將資本投入降至最低，從而實現更短的盈利週期，將自己與美國雲服務同行進行標杆。我們對公司未來的增長持樂觀態度。
適用於公共雲、私有云和混合雲市場的統一底層架構
青雲提供雲產品和服務，主要通過私營部門的雲架構交付雲產品，通過公共部門的架構提供雲服務。隨着這兩個細分市場未來使用統一的技術系統，該公司處於有利地位，可以通過其私營部門和公共部門的雲和非雲架構受益。其戰略性混合雲擴展提供高效、快速的雲解決方案。
公共部門和私有部門的雲差異化
在市場佈局方面，青雲在公共部門雲領域幾乎沒有競爭優勢，相反，它在私營部門雲領域擁有優勢。其超融合系統、企業雲平台和軟件定義存儲產品三大核心產品處於市場領先地位。青雲的目標是將公有云納入混合雲戰略，以揚長避短。它將在混合雲解決方案中為客户提供一致的體驗，這些解決方案相對於競爭對手具有獨特的優勢。
為了參與下一代雲計算，該公司自2017年以來已經開始建設多雲管理平台、容器平台、分佈式數據庫、物聯網和邊緣計算平台等戰略產品。雖然還沒有帶來大規模的收入，但目前的收入增長數據表明，這將成為一個關鍵的收入增長領域。在集裝箱平台上，投入了大量資源，在產品層面擁有市場認可的技術專利。青雲的目標是繼續其集裝箱技術建設。
所有芯片都為穩定的未來增長做好了準備
該公司的混合雲戰略基於其私營部門的雲技術，使其與中國雲計算市場結構高度兼容。青雲跟蹤雲計算行業的三大趨勢：自主可控、原生雲和工業雲。它利用差異化的市場定位來最大限度地減少資本投資，從而實現更短的盈利週期。我們預計未來將實現增長，與美國可比的雲服務公司進行比較。
估值和風險
We expect revenue of RMB587m/803m/1.09bn, up 37.0%/36.7%/35.2% yoy; and gross profit margin of 15.17%/20.05%/ 24.93% in 2021/22/23E. We expect net losses of RMB141m/101m/79m in 2021/22/23E. Factoring in average peer PS and the growth potential of strategic container software, we assign to Qingyun a PS of 8x in 2021E, corresponding to a target price of RMB99.98. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. Risks include: 1) intensifying competition in the cloud computing industry; 2) with continuous investments in R&D and sales, the company could remain in a loss state for several years; 3) uncertainties related to the pandemic; 4) commercialization of strategic software products falling short of expectations; 5) core technology risks; 6) internal control risks; and 7) stock price fluctuations in the short term.
免責聲明(DISCLAIMER):
此文件僅發給指定收件人或機構。其內容可能包含某種享有法律特權或者需要保密的信息。對於任何未經本公司授權而對本文件所載內容進行使用、披露、分發、變更之行為及由此產生的後果，天風國際證券集團有限公司及其聯屬公司和附屬公司（「天風集團」）概不承擔任何責任。如您並非此文件的指定收件人或機構，請立即通知天風集團，並立即銷燬此文件。謝謝合作。
This message is intended only for the individual or entity to which it is addressed. It may contain legally privileged and/or confidential information. TF International Securities Group Limited and its affiliates and subsidiaries (「TF Group」) does not accept liability for the unauthorized use, disclosure, distribution and/or alteration of any information it contains or the consequences thereof. If you are not an intended recipient, please inform TF Group and destroy this message immediately. Thank you.
