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Violent switching! "who are you" caused a tragedy, and the chip plummeted! With the counter-attack of infrastructure and spirits, investment in this industry has soared to 3.2 trillion yuan, and the wind is about to change?
On August 2, 2021, the market style suddenly changed violently, which was called "how old are you?"
The chip semiconductor sector was criticized by analysts as a "black swan", with the chip ETF falling 2.11 per cent against the market and the biggest drop of nearly 5 per cent in intraday trading. However, the market is quite strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index up nearly 2% and the gem Index up 1.55%. Capital construction and liquor counter-attack on a large scale, Guizhou MoutaiRose 4.53%, the previous strengthening part of the new energy industry chain weakened. The turnover between the two cities exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan.
In fact, apart from analysts' anger at industry experts over the weekend, another important reason for the violent switch in style is that the Politburo meeting held last Friday mentioned that a reasonable grasp of the progress of budgetary investment and local government bond issuance will promote the formation of a physical workload by the end of this year and the beginning of next year. The market expects to accelerate the issuance of local government special bonds in the coming months, thereby boosting the growth of fixed asset investment.
So, can the market switch completely? Analysts believe that this possibility may not be high. First of all, there may be no post-position in the second half of the year; second, if the growth rate of fixed asset investment goes up, it will be difficult for large sectors, including iron and steel, to go down, which is a departure from today's market logic.
The market caught fire, but the chip fell.
After last week's turmoil, the market suddenly caught fire today. Traditional blue-chip collective effort, as of the close, the three major indexes rose across the board. Among them, the number of Shanghai stocks rose nearly 2%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose more than 2%. A total of 3507 stocks rose in the market. It closed with a turnover of more than 1.5 trillion yuan.
From the rising plate point of view, building materials, machinery, liquor and other early adjustment of the larger plate increase is quite powerful.
However, the previous increase in the semiconductor industry chain, rare earths, as well as steel, coal, iron ore and other plates fell more obviously.
What is the reason why the market is so divided? Analysts believe that there are three main reasons:
First, the early gains of the adjusted plate are relatively large, valuations and trading congestion have reached an all-time high.
Second, over the weekend, founder SecuritiesChen Hang, chief electronic analyst, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International CorporationYang Xiaosong, the person in charge of photoresist, has different views. As for the current technology of home-made photoresist, Yang Xiaosong, known as "the person in charge of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation photoresist," said directly on WeChat group, "Don't talk about ArF (photoresist). No one can see it, and everyone dares not come to see me." Chen Hang then angrily attacked Yang Xiaosong, "who are you?" Data show that Yang Xiaosong owns a number of patents on photoresist on behalf of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation.
Third, most of the traditional blue chips have experienced a substantial adjustment, there is a rebound in demand. The spirit of the politburo meeting on Friday gave the market some imagination. Some analysts believe that at present, the progress of the issuance of local government special bonds obviously lags behind that of the past few years, and it is expected that the issuance of local government special bonds will be accelerated in the next few months, so as to lay a foundation for the formation of a practical workload at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, so as to give better play to the key role of investment in steady growth.
Is the style completely changed?
Judging from the situation learned by Chinese reporters of securities firms, there are still many funds that hold consumption and have not reduced their positions. Some fund managers said that Maotai would not sell it for less than 2000 yuan.It has to rebound by at least 15%. Moreover, these fund managers generally despise technology and new energy.
However, judging from the spirit of the Politburo meeting last Friday, the meeting stressed the need to tap the potential of the domestic market, support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles, speed up the implementation of the county and rural e-commerce system and express logistics and distribution system, speed up the construction of major projects in the 14th five-year Plan, and guide enterprises to increase investment in technological transformation. It is necessary to strengthen scientific and technological innovation and the resilience of the industrial chain supply chain, strengthen basic research, promote applied research, carry out special actions to supplement the chain and strengthen the chain, speed up the solution of the "sticking neck" problem, and develop specialized and new small and medium-sized enterprises. Unlike many meetings held in the first half of last year, the meeting made no mention of consumption. At present, the most important thing to solve is the problem of carbon peak, carbon neutralization and neck jam.
In addition, the expected financial strength of the market may also have a question mark. This year is the last year of the transition of the new regulations. Tianfeng SecuritiesSong Xuetao believes that the three major battles have achieved decisive results in the past three years, but affected by the epidemic and other factors, financial risk resolution in some areas still needs to be continued, and local government debt risk is one of them. Therefore, on the basis of little pressure to stabilize growth, there will be continuity in the implementation of policies such as the rectification of fiscal discipline and the reduction of leverage by government departments this year. There may be no fiscal post-placement in the second half of this year.
He wrote that the real fiscal strength may not be until next year, and most of this year's new special debt quota is expected to be issued within this year, with a small number lagging behind until next year. Considering that it will take some time for special bonds to be issued, paid, and then invested, the funds raised by bonds issued at the end of this year and the amount of bonds outstanding this year may be moved to next year, which also provides more fiscal reserves for the steady growth of investment next year.
How to interpret the market structure?
From the perspective of market structure, there are indeed structural problems at present. Moreover, if structural problems are allowed to go to extremes, it will trigger a stampede on the market and lead to systemic risks. So, how will the resulting market structure be interpreted? Analysts believe that there are three dimensions:
First of all, because of solar energy,And electric cars have been highly hyped, valuations have appeared a certain bubble, and wind energy, which has not been wildly hyped, may become the direction of market attack. CITICIt is pointed out that when wind power enters the stage of parity, the process of large-scale wind turbines will be accelerated, and the competitiveness of the industrial chain will be strengthened.
Secondly, hydrogen energy may attract great attention, the development of this market has exceeded expectations, and gradually formed a trend. Recently, the updated report of hydrogen Energy Watch released by the International hydrogen Energy Council and McKinsey said that with the acceleration of climate change, as a key pillar of energy transformation, hydrogen investment is accelerating. Since February 2021, 131 new large-scale hydrogen energy projects have been announced worldwide, with a total of 359 projects. By 2030, total investment in hydrogen projects and the entire value chain is estimated at $500 billion (about 3.2 trillion yuan). Moreover, hydrogen fuel cell has found a better application scenario, that is, heavy truck.
Third, the seed industry. The biggest event in the capital markets in August should be Syngenta's listing. The company has the world's leading transgenic technology, has been in the safety certificate application process, the follow-up landing is expected. With the issuance of the safety certificate of genetically modified organisms, the opportunity of the new technology cycle of the seed industry represented by biotechnology is also coming. After the listing of the company, it may bring a strong driving role to the entire seed industry sector. In addition, the Central Deep Reform Commission has adopted the "Action Plan for Revitalizing the seed Industry," and the amendments to the "seed Law", the judicial interpretation of the new plant variety rights under the Supreme Law, the results of the field display of genetically modified corn, the landing of variety approval measures, and so on, are likely to become market catalysts.
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