Original title: blockbuster events and data Forecast of the week from August 2 to August 8: focus on interest rate resolutions of non-farmers and the two major central banks in July
During the week from August 2 to August 8, the RBA and the Bank of England will release interest rate decisions. in terms of data, the non-farm payrolls data and unemployment rate for July in the United States will be released. Other data that need to be watched include China's Caixin PMI, EIA, first hire, US manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, and so on.
Key words on Monday: Chinese PMI, American PMI
Data released jointly by the National Bureau of Statistics and the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell slightly to 50.9 in June, the second lowest for the year, but still higher than market expectations.
The figure fell to 51 in May; this year's high was 51.9 in March, the second highest was 51.3 in January, and the low for the year was 50.6 in February.
The manufacturing PMI of Caixin China fell slightly to 51.3 in June 2021, down from 0.7 percentage points in May and a three-month low, indicating that China's manufacturing growth weakened in June due to repeated outbreaks and supply chain disruptions. This trend is consistent with the manufacturing PMI of the National Bureau of Statistics.
Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin think tank, said that although the epidemic at home and abroad has had a negative impact on the economy, the manufacturing industry as a whole has steadily expanded, the market supply and demand has remained stable, the job market has continued to improve, and the momentum of economic recovery in the post-epidemic era is still there. Inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, but manufacturing purchase prices and ex-factory prices are still rising, and the shortage of local raw materials still exists. In the second half of the year, with the weakening of the low base effect, the interweaving of economic downturn and inflationary pressures is still a serious challenge.
It is expected that the Caixin manufacturing PMI will still hover around 51 in July, but it is still in the expansion range.
The US ISM manufacturing index fell to 60.6 in June from 61.2 last month, below market expectations of 60.9 and the 13th consecutive month of expansion.
In releasing the report, Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of the Manufacturing Committee, said that the manufacturing sector had performed well for 13 consecutive months, with strong growth in demand, consumption and input compared with May.
However, he also pointed out that some respondents said their companies and supply chains were still struggling to cope with strong demand because it was still difficult to hire and retain direct labor, as well as reports of persistently high inventory levels, low user inventory and record raw material delivery times. The labor problem throughout the value chain remains a major obstacle to accelerated growth.
The July data is now expected to be slightly higher than in June, as the manufacturing sector continues to expand as the continued recovery in the US labour market brings new life to the manufacturing recovery.
Keywords on Tuesday: RBA decision, US factory orders, API
Citigroup expects the RBA to announce a delay in bond purchases next week.
Citi said that the Australian Federal Reserve is expected to announce the postponement of the reduction in bond purchases at the August policy committee meeting next Tuesday to support the economic recovery affected by the blockade. The RBA is expected to continue to buy 5 billion yuan a week between September and February next year.
Instead of slowing down bond purchases to A $4 billion a week, as previously planned. The RBA is unlikely to scale back its weekly bond purchases to A $4 billion until February. However, with Australian bond yields lower and the Australian dollar weaker since the blockade, increasing the pace of bond purchases at this stage is unlikely to do much good.
Analysts predict that at its policy meeting next Tuesday, the RBA will try to convince investors that the current inflation situation is still fearless, paving the way for further strong easing. This is expected to have a further depressing effect on the exchange rate of the Australian dollar. Especially given that a number of pessimistic forecasters have concluded that the Australian economy fell into negative growth in the third quarter is a foregone conclusion. As a result, the RBA will not reconsider the prospect of scaling back easing measures until around the end of the year when the country is expected to get back on track from the current epidemic.
Factory order data, which reflect manufacturing activity, represent the number of non-consumable items ordered in the coming month.
Us factory orders rose 8.1 billion, or 1.7 per cent, to $495.5 billion in May, slightly higher than the 1.5 per cent increase expected.
Shipments have also increased in the past 13 months, by $3.3 billion, or 0.7 per cent, to $490.4 billion.
According to API, US gasoline inventories fell by 6.226 million barrels, refined oil by 1.882 million barrels and inventories by 4.728 million barrels in the week ended July 23.
The sharp drop in API crude oil inventories shows that market demand is still strong, and so far the demand impact of Delta virus is still limited.
Keywords on Wednesday: euro zone retail sales, ADP, EIA, US non-manufacturing PMI
The number of ADP payrolls in the United States changed by 692000 in June, with an expected number of 600000, compared with a previous value of 978000.
In terms of industrial performance, the service sector still accounted for a large number of new jobs, reaching 624000 people. The hotel and tourism industry, which was the hardest hit by the epidemic, rebounded strongly, contributing 332000 people, education and health services by 123000, trade, transport and public utilities by 62000, and professional and commercial services by 53000.
Nela, chief economist of the ADP, said the job market recovery remained strong, with strong job growth in the second quarter. Although the number of people employed is still nearly 7 million lower than it was before the outbreak of COVID-19, the total number of new jobs since the beginning of 2021 is about 3 million. Service providers are the hardest hit industry and continue to bear a huge burden. Growth in the leisure and hotel industries is strongest as companies across the country begin to return to work in full.
It is still waiting for a further improvement in the employment situation before starting monetary tightening, even though the US core PCE price index reached 3.5 per cent in June.
As unemployment benefits are stopped in the states, the labor market is expected to continue to improve steadily, and small non-farm payrolls data for July are now expected to be about the same as in June.
In the United States, as of July 23, the week EIA crude oil inventory changes actually announced a reduction of 4.089 million barrels, EIA gasoline inventory actually announced a reduction of 2.253 million barrels, EIA refinery inventory actually announced a reduction of 3.088 million barrels, a decline greater than expected, consistent with API data, which may mean that the outlook for the oil market continues to be bullish, in the case of no major fluctuations in the macro side, EIA data is still expected to continue to decline next week.
Data show that the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI actually released 60.10 in June, with an expected value of 63.5 and a previous value of 64. Among the sub-indicators, the employment index actually published 49.30, with a previous value of 55.3.
The recent US economic recovery has accelerated, but the job market has lagged behind due to supply constraints, but the ISM non-manufacturing PMI has been above the bust line since June last year, indicating that expansion in the services sector has been steadily under way, albeit at times high and low.
Institutional review of US ISM non-manufacturing data for June pointed out that the US service sector expanded less than expected in June, and indicators of employment showed contraction, reflecting employers' difficulties in attracting employees.
The July data are expected to show a slight improvement in expansion.
Key words on Thursday: bank of England resolution, initial request, US trade account
The Bank of England is expected to focus on whether anyone on the monetary policy committee will replace Mr Haldane, who has now left, to vote for a reduction in asset purchases. Committee member Sanders, who is the most likely candidate, recently said policy makers should scale back their plans in the next month or two, but vice president Ramsden has also been tougher recently. Although the British economy did not grow as rapidly as many expected after most of the blockade restrictions were lifted, encouraging news about the epidemic seems to be a major factor.
TD Securities said that despite the recent hawkish attitude of two members, the Bank of England is not expected to make any change in its interest rate decision next week. While wages and inflation remain strong, there are early signs of a slowdown in demand. In addition, the decision on quantitative easing is not expected to be adopted unanimously. This result should not be
The trend against the United States provides a strong direction.
The total number of first-time claims for regular state unemployment benefits in the week ended July 24 was 400000, down 24000 from the previous week, according to figures released by the Labor Department on Thursday.
Against the backdrop of rising demand for labour, the number of weekly jobless claims has fallen sharply since the beginning of the year. About half of U.S. governors have ended all three federal unemployment benefits set up during the outbreak ahead of the September deadline, which is seen as an important means of boosting the labor market recovery.
In addition, thanks to vaccination and a full recovery of the economy, US consumer confidence is rising, personal spending is growing faster than expected, and next week's trade deficit figures are expected to widen further.
Key words on Friday: RBA monetary policy statement, non-farm payrolls
The overall figures for the June jobs report were much better than expected, and the addition of 850000 jobs was a good improvement, but it did not tell us how soon American workers who left work last February were likely to return. It was particularly disappointing that the unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.9 per cent, a lower-than-expected decline of 5.6 per cent, while the labour force participation rate remained unchanged at 61.6 per cent. To some, this seems more worrying.
Williams, chairman of the New York Federal Reserve.Is one of the members concerned about the low participation rate, which was 63.4% before the pandemic. The US economy has barely changed since the report was released in June, and most expect the Fed to stay put until the fourth quarter, regardless of inflation.
The July report was released against a backdrop of rising prices, and the number of weekly jobless claims remained at around 400000. Some states in the United States are already phasing out some emergency benefits as a result of the epidemic in an attempt to force people back to work and reduce their stimulus spending.
It is feasible to a certain extent. However, this is not enough to fill more than 9 million job vacancies. This seems to be the reason for the Fed to keep loose. How many of these 7 million people are no longer in the labour force and are not reflected in the current participation rate. How many people retire early or start their own businesses? Quite simply, it is too early to draw conclusions, and while the Fed can talk about the benefits of tightening or raising interest rates, it can do nothing about unemployment. 925000 jobs are expected to be added in July.