I. Overview of events
On 2021-7-14, the company issued a semi-annual performance forecast for 2021, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.05-115 million yuan in the first half of 2021.
II. Analysis and judgment
Gao Jingjing & domestic substitution acceleration and smooth progress of new products drive a big increase in performance the company announced that it is expected to achieve a return net profit of 1.05-115 million yuan in the first half of 2021, an increase of 305-344%. Based on the median of the range, 21Q2 is expected to achieve a single-quarter net profit of 107 million yuan, an increase of 577% and a ring increase of 3920%. After excluding non-recurrent profits and losses, non-return net profit of 4000-50 million yuan was deducted in the first half of 2021, with an increase of 58-98%.
Calculated according to the median of the range, 21Q2 is expected to realize a net profit of 22.4042 million yuan deducted from non-return in a single quarter, an increase of 42%. Mainly due to the growth of downstream demand, the acceleration of domestic substitution, the continuous release of ultra-pure chemical materials in the company's wafers, and more and more customer recognition of ultra-pure electroplating solution, additives and cleaning solution products; SMIC participated in the initial strategic placement of SMIC, it was confirmed that the net profit affected by fair value changes was about 65 million yuan during the reporting period.
The only domestic supplier of ultra-pure electroplating solution, Hefei Phase I will contribute production capacity at the beginning of 2022, which is one of the leading enterprises of functional chemicals for chip surface treatment for semiconductor manufacturing. Now it has realized the layout of four major product lines of electroplating, cleaning, grinding and photoresist, and many products are in the early stage of rapid production. The company is the only ultra-pure electroplating solution supplier and mainstream cleaning solution supplier that can meet the 28-90nm wafer manufacturing technology node, downstream customers cover SMIC, Huahong, Changshou, Changxin and other mainstream manufacturers, electroplating & cleaning ultra-pure product Hefei first phase new production capacity of 15,000 tons / year, will be put into production at the beginning of 2022, in the context of supply falling short of demand, open the company's capacity bottleneck, ultra-pure products are expected to achieve rapid growth.
Photoresist is progressing smoothly, the company is the storage of silicon nitride etching solution for domestic I-line photoresist is in the customer verification stage, ArF 193nm dry photoresist is in the off-line testing stage, KrF (248nm) thick film photoresist has made the first order, photoresist products are progressing smoothly, it is expected to accelerate photoresist revenue. At present, the company is the exclusive domestic supplier of customers' silicon nitride etching solution products, which is the company's exclusive research and development achievements, further enriching the product matrix and expanding the performance power source.
III. Investment suggestions
We estimate that the company's net return profit for 2021-22-23 will be 1.71 million yuan, corresponding to a 72-fold increase in PE, and excluding the non-profit or loss caused by changes in the fair value of transactional financial assets. it is estimated that the company's net profit deducted from changes in the fair value of transactional financial assets will be 1.16 percent, 1.61 million yuan, an increase of 147 percent, 39 percent, and 39 percent over the same period last year. The current Shenwan semiconductor index PE is 132x, taking into account the high prosperity of the semiconductor industry, as well as the company's future capacity expansion, product structure optimization, coverage for the first time, given a "recommended" rating.
IV. Risk hints
The prosperity of the industry is not as good as expected; the progress of research and development is not as expected; the capacity climbing is not as expected.