Core ideas:
The company disclosed its results in the first half of 2021, KuaiBao: the net profit of returning to the mother was about 1.2 billion yuan, an increase of 194% over the same period last year. In 2020, the net profit of returning to the mother was 1.038 billion yuan, which has exceeded about 16%.
Benefit Hong Kong stocks IPO excellent underwriting; private equity fund business continues to bring investment income and so on.
The company's 2021Q1 operating data are eye-catching, and all business lines are in full bloom: (1) the investment management business continues to have high-quality projects listed, and its investment enterprises, including Kuaishou, Xintong Medical, Belong, Zhihu and other larger projects, have all completed the listing, and the continuous listing of high-quality enterprises ensures that the company's funds withdraw from the smooth channel. (2) the advantages of traditional investment banking business continue. The transaction value of 2021Q1 financing advisory services is 18 billion yuan, and the transaction value of stock underwriting is 81.2 billion yuan. In 2020, the transaction value of advisory services and stock underwriting is 61.8 billion yuan and 171.9 billion yuan, respectively. Many of them play important roles, such as as co-sponsors of 01024.HK. (3) the wealth management business of the new layout is growing rapidly. At the end of 2021Q1, the asset management of the company's wealth management business reached 5.9 billion yuan, an increase of about 74% from 3.4 billion yuan at the beginning of the year.
Investment bank + investment coordination, with sustained growth. The private equity investment management business of the company makes the greatest contribution to the performance, which comes from the excess income share of the fund. As its funds and the assets held by the group are mainly invested in the new economy-related industries, the recent related industries are subject to policy and market fluctuations.
Among them, (1) the investment income from the primary market benefits from the appreciation achieved in several rounds of financing before the listing of the invested company, and has certainty; (2) in the short and medium term, the earlier established funds of the company have gradually entered the withdrawal period, and the continuous IPO of mature projects can offset some of the effects of fluctuations in the secondary market.
(3) in the long run, the company has remarkable advantages in deeply ploughing the new economy industry. The rapid growth of new fund raising and wealth management business contributes to the growth of AUM in the company's asset management business.
Investment advice and profit forecast: the company's profit forecast is raised, and the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.462 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 40.9% over the same period last year. Maintain the fair value of the company at HK $41.86 per share, corresponding to 2021E at approximately 12.7xPE valuation. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: the tightening of listing channels hinders the withdrawal of funds; large fluctuations in the capital market affect the value of the fund portfolio; the raising progress of new funds is not as expected.