Since the beginning of the year, with the gradual recovery of the global economy, the global shipping industry is also booming, and shipping prices are rising.

According to statistics, the Baltic dry index, which reflects the overall trend of global shipping prices, has risen from 1374 at the beginning of this year to 3154 today, an increase of more than 130 per cent. If calculated from the lowest point of 393 points during last year's epidemic, the increase is more than 700%.

Under the influence of the skyrocketing international freight rates, domestic foreign trade enterprises have also appeared the situation that "one box is difficult to obtain". According to CCTV Finance, the head of a freight forwarding company said that since April this year, there has been a shortage of container capacity on international routes, and freight rates have increased about five times compared with the same period in 2019. In particular, if you want to book a flight between Europe and the United States, it will basically take about a month in advance.

However, for the sharp rise in freight rates, some market analysts have said bluntly that such an increase is not high. Mark Williams, general manager of shipping consulting firm Shipping Strategy, said during a panel discussion at the TradeWinds Singapore Shipowners Forum 2021 earlier this month:

The rise in freight rates is good, but to be honest, it is not a "supercycle" yet.

According to the explanation, "supercycle" refers to a long-term and wide-ranging rise in the price of a commodity or service over a long period of time, which is usually related to strong demand and low supply.

Rashpal Bhatti, BHP Group Ltd's vice president in charge of shipping and supply chain, expressed similar views when attending the same panel discussion. He believes that although shipping prices are at multi-year highs, they have not yet reached the peak of the previous bull market.

As for the causes of skyrocketing freight rates, CNBC believes that, first, the commodity boom has driven transport demand, and at the same time, the recovery of some regional economies from COVID-19 is also one of the reasons. In addition, some people in the shipping industry pointed out that inefficiency and port congestion may also lead to an increase in shipping costs.

In an interview, Mark Williams made it clear that government policies and macroeconomics are at the heart of "super" markets because countries are injecting cash into the economic system through stimulus measures, which is a "key lever" for economic growth.

In addition, he added that the lack of a boom in ordering new bulk carriers and the elimination of some old ships helped keep shipping prices high.

In fact, the impact of skyrocketing shipping prices is not limited to the transport industry. Previous articles on Wall Street have pointed out that Deutsche Bank distressed debt trader Mark Spehn has bought shares, bonds and bank loan products of Zim Integrated Shipping Services, an Israeli shipping company, at a steep discount since 2016, taking advantage of the global shipping downturn, with a total bet of nearly $100m.

Driven by strong demand from Europe and the United States, global container rates have soared, and the market value of Zim, which successfully listed in January, has tripled, giving Deutsche Bank a windfall worth $1 billion. According to statistics, the deal is one of Deutsche Bank's biggest victories since shorting the "big short" of US subprime bonds.