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Source: basic surface force field

On Monday, July 26, the international rating agency S & P announced a downgrade.China Evergrande (03333.HK)And its subsidiaries, China Evergrande, Evergrande and Space Holdings downgraded from B+ to Bmuri, with a negative outlook. In its rating report, S & P said the weakening of the developer's financing channels would "hit its liquidity and its ability to reduce debt in an orderly manner", while Evergrande's credit standing was also dragged down by a "serious decline in profitability". It is not hard to imagine that this has added another straw to the great camel of Evergrande's debt crisis.

Especially on Tuesday, the Evergrande announcement overturned the previously released special profit distribution plan, although before that, Li Changjun thought that the special profit distribution plan proposed by Evergrande was naive and unenforceable at all. However, it is not difficult to see that Evergrande's capital operation is out of order when it is hastily proposed that it will be withdrawn for only a week.

In the past year, there has been a lot of information about Evergrande's debt crisis, which is not repeated, and on the whole, it is also very disadvantageous to Evergrande. Mr. Force Field feels that in this process, many of Evergrande's practices are problematic, even magnifying the concerns of investors and creditors about Evergrande. So, today, Lichang Jun would like to sum up what Evergrande has done wrong in the past year.

Mistake one: keep warm in a group, and the partners are very poor.

On September 24, 2020, a document affixed with the official seal of Evergrande Group, "report on pleading for support for major asset restructuring projects", quickly fermented on major social networking platforms, making people feel for the first time. Evergrande, the world's top 500 company, known as China's number one housing company, is already shaky.

Soon, Evergrande Group refuted the rumors: recently, rumors about the restructuring of Evergrande Real Estate spread on the Internet, and the relevant documents and screenshots were fabricated and defamed, causing serious damage to our company's goodwill. Our company strongly condemns and has reported the case to the public security organs and resolutely used legal weapons to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the company.

However, an announcement that attracted the attention of the market was immediately released, signing a supplementary agreement with 86.3 billion of the 130 billion war investment, and the war investment agreed to be converted to ordinary equity for a long time, and the equity ratio remained unchanged; for the remaining 43.7 billion war investment, Evergrande has finished negotiations with 15.5 billion war investment, and is currently going through the formalities, and 28.2 billion war investment is under negotiation.

From the perspective of the institutions involved in the debt restructuring of Evergrande Group at that time, there are several institutions of particular concern, includingSUNINGZhang Jindong, chairman of holding, Ye Yuanxi, chairman of Guangtian Holdings,Anxin trustChairman Shao Mingan and so on. Among them, Anxin Trust was already in debt and was STGuangtian GroupPerformance plummeted, huge losses, not to mention SUNING, fell in front of Evergrande.

As the saying goes, "it is easy to enjoy the cool by leaning against a big tree." it is the right way for strategic investors to find an institution with deep pockets. It is unreliable to find a group of younger brothers who have not yet lived a good life to save themselves. On the contrary, Evergrande at that time needed institutions that were not as good as their own to save themselves, which in itself revealed how many negative messages and negative expectations.

Error 2: debt resolution is opaque and unfair

In the wake of the debt crisis, Evergrande has been trying to get into debt, and even revealed on June 30 that the company's net debt ratio has fallen below 100%, turning a red line to green. But at the same time, we can also see that Evergrande's debt reduction route map is not clear and opaque, at least in the investor circle can not form a stable expectation of Evergrande debt reduction.

On the contrary, what else do we see? At the end of June, at almost the same time as Evergrande announced that a red line had turned green, A-share listed companiesThree treesIn the form of an announcement, China Evergrande attracted widespread attention after the overdue bills for the three trees totaled 51.3706 million yuan, followed by news from Evergrande that the overdue bills for the three trees had been paid in June.

Then, recently, Guangfa Bank sued Evergrande for property preservation, which once again triggered a crisis of confidence in Evergrande; then, on July 22, Evergrande Group and Guangfa Bank simultaneously issued a statement this morning, saying that the civil ruling on property preservation before the recent lawsuit had been properly resolved through full communication between the two sides.

I don't know what you think when you see the above message, but the feeling to Lichang is that Evergrande has not yet reached the level that the debt cannot be dealt with completely, but there is a choice in the matter of debt repayment. I will deal with whose debt first.

If you think about it, is there still business logic and commercial reputation to speak of? If this is the case, Evergrande's creditors will definitely force more and more debts. This kind of debt resolution is opaque and unfair, which is an endless trouble for any company, not to mention Evergrande on the cusp of the current storm.

Yesterday, Mr. Force Field was talking to a first-class friend about the commercial ticket of Evergrande. He said: "what worries people most is the payment order of the commercial ticket. If it is given to those who have rebates first and then to the related customers, then it will be finished, and they will not be able to play any more."

Error 3: incorrect posture, more guilty behind the hoarseness

When the former property preservation was sued by Guangfa Bank later this month, there were a lot of media comments about the possibility that Evergrande could be maliciously shorted. Mr. Force Field did not know whether there was any trading behind Evergrande in this wave of publicity.

For example, when the rating was downgraded on Monday, the response from Evergrande that Mr. Force Field saw was "deep regret and incomprehension" and publicly stressed: "overseas short sellers frequently create public opinion through internal and external cooperation, maliciously shorting Evergrande stocks, causing great panic in the capital market to Evergrande. On September 24, 2020, the short selling forces maliciously shorted Evergrande, and the volume of short selling on that day was as high as 130 times that of the usual short selling. Since the end of May this year, it has continued to maliciously short Evergrande at home and abroad, creating seven or eight rounds of public opinion. Only a certain overseas media has written 41 articles that discredit Evergrande and create public opinion within two months. "

Mr. Force Field saw the above information, in fact, he felt very uncomfortable. Judging from these speeches, he did not see the self-reflection that a company in crisis should have.

One of the basic common sense of life is that "mosquitoes bite people badly at the beginning of autumn." Evergrande is so hoarse against the air, on the contrary, it highlights guilt and even makes people wonder, apart from being tough, Evergrande is really at a dead end.

Li Changjun said so much, not to continue to disgust Evergrande, but to feel that Evergrande has come to this point, and it is all the more necessary to correct its posture and stand with investors and creditors in order to get out of the current endless cycle; full and effective communication, good exchange of information, these are the cornerstones of Evergrande's debt crisis handling to ensure fairness and fairness, if there is no such guarantee, why trust it?

Li Changjun also understands that many private enterprises are highly dependent on a core figure, who may be very radical or even flout the rules, but when the enterprise becomes big, it must establish an operating system that can be independent of the core personnel. make rational judgments based on objective data, rather than a person's likes and dislikes Especially in the face of the event that if the debt crisis is not handled well, it is likely to collapse. From operation to information disclosure to brand operation, a system that needs to be integrated all the more should not be in disorder. Otherwise, wouldn't it be a change from bomb disposal to detonation and a "reminder" to give yourself a "reminder"?

In any case, Evergrande is also the company that has dominated the top sales list for many years, and Mr. Force Field also hopes that Evergrande can get out of its current predicament; on the other hand, if Evergrande fails to overcome this hurdle, it will certainly bring more real estate companies into the water.

Responsible editor: Feng Tiwei