Main points of investment:
The focus of the spin-off digital marketing business has shifted to new chemical materials, and the operation has improved significantly: previously, the main business of Lianchuang Co., Ltd. included two major sectors: digital marketing and chemical new materials. Due to the fact that the development of the digital marketing business is far less than expected over the past few years, the company made a strategic adjustment in 2019 and has now entered the end of the divestiture of the digital marketing business. Since then, the company will be "light", focusing on the research and development, production and sales of new chemical materials and new environmentally friendly materials. With the transfer of business structure to the chemical industry, the company's performance has improved, and the scale of losses has been reduced year by year. It has turned losses into profits in 2021, and is expected to achieve a net profit of 4000-48 million yuan belonging to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of the year.
With the advantage of raw material quota, the first phase of 3000 tons of PVDF is expected to be put into production this year: benefiting from the rapid development of lithium power, photovoltaic and other industries, the market demand for PVDF, which can be used as positive binder and battery separator for lithium batteries, has begun to accelerate in recent years. At present, most of the PVDF capacity under construction will be put into production by the end of 2022, and the main raw material R142b needs quota production under the influence of environmental protection policy. The shortage of supply side and raw material side at the same time makes it difficult to improve the PVDF demand gap in the short term. The market prices of PVDF and R142b are pushed to the high point in a short time, and the product price gap has been significantly reduced. Huaan Xinliang, a subsidiary company acquired in the first year of strategic transformation, has a design capacity of 20,000 tons / year and a production quota of 3650 tons / year, ranking first in the country. Based on the advantages of raw materials, the company has laid out 8000 tons / year PVDF production capacity, the current phase of the project 3000 tons has been completed and is expected to be put into production this year, and is expected to produce 1000 tons of qualified PVDF by the end of the year. The company's own R142b production capacity is sufficient to achieve self-sufficiency of raw materials with a capacity of 8000 tons of PVDF, which makes the company more advantageous in the process of PVDF production and sales from raw material price fluctuations and profit.
Multi-point layout of chemical new materials projects, increase R & D investment to improve industrial layout: in addition to strategic transformation, the company plans to increase R & D investment by strengthening cooperation with domestic first-class scientific research institutions and building new material R & D centers, expand technological advantages on the basis of the existing core process technology.
The company plans to focus on developing fine chemicals such as new polyurethane materials, fourth-generation foaming agents, fluorine-containing polymers and degradable plastics, and a number of projects under construction are under construction steadily. According to the construction cycle, it can be estimated that the company's new products are expected to be put into production in 2022-2023, and the company's industrial layout, profitability and risk resistance are also gradually improved.
Profit Forecast and Investment suggestion: based on the company's industrial layout planning, we estimate that the company's operating income from 2021 to 2023 will be 290,3850 and 4.740 billion yuan respectively, the net profit from its parent will be 1.66 billion yuan, and its EPS will be 0.48pm and 1.38pm, respectively. (corresponding to the closing price of 10.1 yuan on July 26). Joint coverage for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk factors: the risk of limited start-up of products affected by environmental protection policy, the risk that the progress of PVDF construction is not as expected, the risk that the project under construction is not as expected, the risk of large fluctuations in product prices, and the risk of personnel changes in management.