share_log

杭州柯林(688611)更新报告:六问六答 分享碳中和能源物联网蓝海市场

Hangzhou Colin (688611) Update Report: Six Questions and Six Answers Sharing the Carbon Neutral Energy Internet of Things Blue Ocean Market

浙商證券 ·  Jul 25, 2021 00:00

1. When will the intelligent demand of power grid be landed in a large area?

Improving the reliability of power grid is the endogenous demand of power grid in our country. In the past few years, the structural proportion of intelligent information investment in power grid has increased significantly. Under the dual-carbon goal, large-scale new energy on the generation side will be connected to the grid and the increasingly complex load on the user side will have an impact on the stability of the power grid and put forward higher requirements for power grid reliability. In response to the requirements of the central government to build a new power system with new energy as the main body, the national power grid and the southern power grid are actively arranging the research and reserve of related technologies, and the relevant detailed policies are on the ground, and the intelligent and information-based investment in the power grid is expected to be further accelerated.

2. Can regional expansion be realized more quickly? Is it difficult to expand outside the province?

Guangdong / Shanghai / Hubei / Hainan / Sichuan / Shandong and other provinces and cities have begun intelligent power grid planning and layout, and the company has entered the reference brand of provincial national power companies. After the technology disclosure and small batch trial, it is expected to usher in the tender volume, greatly supporting the sustained and rapid growth of the company's performance.

3. How high is the core competition of the company? How deep is the moat?

The advanced nature of high technology constitutes the company's core competitive advantage, rather than simple relationship marketing. The advantage of leading brand will be further interpreted after listing, and the accumulation of deep data model know-how will continue to deepen the business moat.

4. How to understand the high profitability of the company? Is there a risk of a significant decline in the ungross margin?

The company's current high profitability is due to: the company is responsible for the core software design steps of the product; the current market is small and requires a higher gross / net interest rate to encourage development, design and production. In order to open up the market in the future, we can make an appropriate profit, the scale effect superimposed customization, online transportation and chemical product characteristics determine that the gross profit margin will not decline significantly.

5. How much room is there for the stock price in a year? How much room is there for the market scale in the long run?

Short-term: we expect the company's performance in 2021-23 to be 1.38 pound 1.95 / 264 million yuan, giving the company 26 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 90 yuan, there is still 62% room for increase. Long-term: the total investment in electric power information and communications will reach 82 billion yuan in 2025, with an increase of 14% in 2020-2025. The national online monitoring market capacity of intelligent substations in 2020-2030 is nearly 55 billion yuan, while the current annual market size is only 1.7 billion yuan, an annualized growth of 20% in five years.

6. What are the key catalysts for follow-up payments?

Under the background of carbon neutralization, the related policy outline and quantitative investment planning for the construction of new power system, the growth rate of information investment in national and southern power grids, the intelligent monitoring of software and hardware demand for power grid in open bidding products, the winning of bids and orders inside and outside the province, various profitability indicators.

Risk hint

The growth rate of power grid investment is not up to expectation, and the progress of market development outside the province is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment