Items:
The company issued a forecast of the performance of the China Central report, and estimated that its revenue was 239 million yuan, an increase of 134.6% over the same period last year.
Comments:
TAVR products scale up quickly. In the first half of this year, the company implanted about 1900 TAVR surgical terminals (including some donated implants), a rapid increase over the same period last year.
Second-generation products accounted for about 20 per cent of TAVR surgical terminal implants in the first half of this year. Since the company's second-generation product VenusA-Plus was approved to be put on the market in November 2020, the terminal implantation has achieved a better volume. As of 21H1, the first generation products of the company have completed the admission work of nearly 300 hospitals, and the second generation products have completed the admission work of nearly 100 hospitals, and the admission work is progressing smoothly.
Overseas revenue of TriGUARD 3, a brain protector, has increased significantly. In the first half of this year, TriGUARD 3 realized revenue of about 10 million yuan (compared with 3.35 million yuan last year). Qiming is steadily promoting the listing and volume of TriGUARD 3 around the world. Overseas, TriGUARD 3 received EU CE certification on March 4, 2020, and the company formally submitted its application for listing of TriGUARD 3 to FDA in September 2020, and applications for registration in Argentina, Brazil and other countries are also under preparation. In China, TriGUARD 3 is currently in the stage of registered clinical trials.
The product under development is progressing smoothly. The company's TAVR second-generation upgrade product VenusA-Pro is about to declare NMPA.
Venus PowerX, the third generation product of TAVR, is in the stage of animal research, and Venus Vitae is about to enter FIM. VenusP-Valve is in the stage of registration review of CE, the preparatory stage of IDE in the United States, and the "green channel" of the special examination and approval procedure in China. Limbus is in the preparatory stage of FIM and VenusTricuspid Valve is in the stage of animal research.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating. We expect the company's 21-23 revenue to be 543 million, 1.043 billion and 1.615 billion yuan, an increase of 97%, 92% and 55% over the same period last year, and net profit of-6 million, 105 million and 358 million yuan. According to DCF estimates, the reasonable market capitalization of the company should be 38.7 billion yuan (corresponding to the share price of HK $105), maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1, the volume growth of the company's TAVR products is not up to expectations; 2, the approval progress and volume of new products such as TPVR are not up to expectations; 3, the competitive pressure is intensified, and the price reduction of the products is more than expected.