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公募和外资是如何持仓硬科技的

How do public offerings and foreign investors hold positions in hard technology

中金點睛 ·  Jul 27, 2021 11:09

01.pngNiuniu knocked on the blackboard:

From the recent disclosure of 2Q21 public offering fund position data, semiconductor position increased rapidly, North Huachuang, Zhuoshengwei, Zhaoyi innovation and other stocks were increased more; Lixun Precision, Gore shares and other Apple Inc industrial chain companies increased significantly, security leading continued to be favored by investors.

From the recent disclosure of 2Q21 public offering fund position data, semiconductor positions increased rapidly; Apple Inc industrial chain leader regained fund holdings. Looking forward to 3Q21, we are mainly optimistic about the continuation of the global semiconductor industry; at the same time, we suggest that we should pay attention to the potential investment opportunities brought about by the launch of Apple Inc's new 2H21.

Comment

Semiconductor / panel: the position of semiconductor plate is increasing rapidly. It is recommended to pay attention to the shortage of chips and the localization process of semiconductor industry chain.The semiconductor position of 2Q21 public offering fund rose to 5.35% month-on-month, while North China Chuang, Zhuoshengwei, Zhaoyi Innovation and other stocks increased their holdings more.Shanghai (Shenzhen) Hong Kong Stock ConnectNorthward funds to increase Weir shares, Zhaoyi Innovation, Zhuo Shengwei, etc., southward funds mainly buy Hua Hong Semiconductor, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation.

We believe that 2Q21 is affected by the global chip shortage, chip production capacity exceeds demand, the semiconductor industry chain price increases continue to spread, the industry boom continues. Benefiting from rising prices and accelerated localization, the performance of some listed companies broke out, and the semiconductor sector was sought after by funds. Looking forward to 3Q21, we are optimistic that the global semiconductor industry will continue to have a high demeanor, the mid-stream production expansion will lead to an increase in equipment expenditure, and the trend of localization of the semiconductor industry chain. It is recommended that we continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in the semiconductor / panel sector.

Consumer electronics: the proportion of positions has declined, it is recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought about by the upstream industrial chain stock and Mini LED penetration driven by the release of Apple Inc's new machine in the second half of the year.2Q21 funds mainly increase holdings of Lixun, Gore and other targets, mainly due to: 1) pre-AirPods expectations are too pessimistic, leading companies down more, configuration performance-to-price ratio highlighted; 2) Gore in ARVR and other aspects of the layout of market recognition; 3) Lixun is expected to cut into the supply of iPhone 13 main models in 2H21, we think this will improve the pessimistic forecast for the whole year.As for the Shanghai (Shenzhen) Hong Kong Stock Connect, northward funds also reduced their holdings in Lixun Precision and Gale, while southward funds mainly bought core consumer electronics targets such as Sunny Optical Technology and BYD Electronic.Looking forward to 3Q21, we believe that the valuation repair logic of fruit chain will continue, the market attention will extend to the second-tier target of stable performance growth, and the penetration of Mini LED will increase.

Communications / security: communications positions have declined slightly compared with the previous month, and are still at an all-time low. It is recommended to pay attention to the undervalued leaders in various sub-areas; the security plate benefits from the Internet of things, artificial intelligence, digital construction, etc., and the fundamentals continue to pick up, so it is recommended to pay attention to.In terms of communications, 2Q21 funds mainly increase their holdings of ZTE Corporation, Yilian network and other targets; in terms of security, leading Haikangwei TV is still favored by public offering funds.

Reviewing the changes in the position of the communications / security plate, we believe that although the leading companies in the communications sector have a good quarterly performance and the overall valuation level is also low, the current communications plate is far away from hot spots and low market attention; while security vision has become the main application scenario for AIoT landing, with years of deep ploughing, leading companies gradually begin to change to a platform company with front-end data acquisition and background data analysis. In terms of the Shanghai (Shenzhen) Hong Kong Stock Connect, the continuous distribution of northward capital is targeted at Zhong Ji Xuchuang, ZTE Corporation, Sinnet and so on.

Analysis of 2Q21 Electronic position of Public offering Fund: semiconductor position has increased significantly

The public offering fund 2Q21 report has been disclosed, and we have analyzed the position situation and changing trend of the fund electronic sector, in which the electronic sector stocks are subject to the Shenwan electronic index stocks.

On the whole, 2Q21 fund heavy holdings in the electronic sector accounted for 13.47%, a month-on-month increase in 1.74ppt. The overmatch amplitude of 2Q21 electronic plate increased to 5.22ppt. The SW electronic index rose 19.13% in the second quarter of 2021, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.60% and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 8.46%, outperforming the broader market.

From the perspective of industry segmentation: 1) Haikangwei, the leader of the security plate, was increased by more funds, and the stock price performed well in the second quarter, but the stock price of Dahua shares outperformed the electronic plate in the second quarter; 2) the semiconductor position increased rapidly. North China Chuang, Zhuo Shengwei, Zhaoyi Innovation and other stocks were increased more.

Chart: full fund electronic position ratio and overallocation / underallocation

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Chart: SW Electronic Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index rise and fall in the past year

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

From the point of view of the number of heavy positions held, Lixun Precision, Gore shares and other Apple Inc industrial chain companies increased significantly, security bibcock continued to be favored by investors. The top five positions of public offering funds in 2Q21 are Haikangwei (675-> 815), Lixun Precision (276-> 441), Weir shares (260-> 354), Zhuo Shengwei (135-> 304), and North Huachuang (53-> 224). The targets with the largest number of 2Q21 funds are North Huachuang, Zhuoshengwei, Lixun Precision, Gale shares, Haikangwei, and the largest number of reduction funds, Jingfang A, TCL Technology, Fenghua Hi-Tech, HTC Electronics, Silipu.

From the point of view of the market value of heavy holdings, the top five companies in 2Q21 are Haikangwei, Lixun Precision, Weir shares, Zhuo Shengwei, Zhaoyi Innovation; Shilan Weiwei, Jingchen shares, Xinwanda, Farah Electronics and so on began to enter the top 20.

From the perspective of subdivision

1) Apple Inc's willingness to allocate the industrial chain is rising:Lixun Precision (number of heavy position funds: 276-> 441 jue 2Q21 shares increased by 35.7%), Gale shares (number of heavy position funds: 69-> 211 minus 2Q21 shares rose 56.0%)

2) the reduction of individual stocks on the panel is obvious:In the second quarter, BOE A, TCL Technology and other panel leaders were all reduced by the agency.

3) the attention of security leading stocks continues:The industry leader Haikang Weiwei continues to be increased by the organization. We believe that visual security has become one of the important scenes of AIoT, and the leading companies of security plate not only have the advantages of the number of terminals and the amount of data collected, but also have certain technology accumulation, and are expected to continue to take the lead in the new track of artificial intelligence and digital economy development.

4) Semiconductor position improvement:Benefiting from rising prices and accelerated localization, the performance of some semiconductor listed companies has grown well, and the plate as a whole has been sought after by funds.

Chart: 2Q21 electronic sector fund heavy holdings TOP20 holdings (listed by the market value of 2Q21 funds in descending order)

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Note: closing price information as of 2021-7-22

Chart: 2Q21 electronic sector fund heavy holdings TOP20 holdings (sorted by the number of 2Q21 funds in descending order)

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Note: closing price information as of 2021-7-22

Chart: 2Q21 Electronics Industry Fund increases its holdings of the top 20 shares

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Note: closing price information as of 2021-7-22

Chart: 2Q21 Electronics Industry Fund reduces its holdings of the first 20 shares

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Note: closing price information as of 2021-7-22

Analysis of 2Q21 Communications position of Public offering Fund: actively pay attention to undervalued leaders in various sub-areas

The 2Q21 report of the public offering fund has been disclosed, and we have analyzed the position and changing trend of the communications and computer sectors of the fund, in which the components of the communications and computer sectors shall prevail on the Shenwan Communications Index.

On the whole, the communications sector accounted for 0.82% of the heavy holdings of 2Q21 funds, with a month-on-month decline in 0.06ppt, and a decline in positions, which was lower than the historical average of 1.92%, 2.56%, 0.21ppt, and 4.63%, respectively. On the whole, the communication and computer plates are in low configuration in 2Q21, low configuration amplitude 0.39ppt in communication, and low configuration amplitude 1.08ppt in computer. Judging from the stock price performance, the communications sector and the computer sector as a whole rose 5.69% and 9.08% respectively in the first quarter, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index.

Chart: the proportion of communication positions in the whole fund and the over / low allocation

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Chart: full-fund computer position ratio and over / low allocation

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Chart: SW Communications Index, SW computer Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index up and down in the past year

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Judging from the number of heavy positions heldThe top five 2Q21 positions of public offering funds in the communications sector are ZTE Corporation (51-> 99), Yilian Network (57-> 68), Mobile Communications (25-> 23), China Unicom (12-> 22) and Zhongtian Technology (25-> 19). The largest number of 2Q21 increase funds are ZTE Corporation, Yilian Network, China Unicom, Guanghetong, and Optical Technology, while the largest number of reduction funds are Zhongtian Technology, Mobile Communications, Sinnet, Tianfu Communications and Star net Ruijie. In the computer sector, the top five 2Q21 positions of public offering funds are Hang Seng Electronics (172-> 202), iFLYTEK (79-> 142), Kingsoft Office (107-> 132), China Kechuangda (139-> 127), and Shengxin (105-> 110). The largest number of 2Q21 funds for iFLYTEK, Desai Xiwei, Hang Seng Electronics, Kingsoft Office, Baichu Electronics, the largest number of reduction funds for the user network, Kai Ming Star, an Heng Information, China Science and Technology Chuangda.

Judging from the market value of heavy holdingsThe top five 2Q21 companies in the communications sector are ZTE Corporation, Yilian Network, July 12, Zhongtian Science and Technology, and Mobile Communications. The top five 2Q21 companies in the computer sector are Shengxin, Guanglianda, Hang Seng Electronics, Kingsoft Office, and Zhongke Chuangda.

From the perspective of subdivisionIn the communications sector, companies in the areas of communications equipment, unified communications and optical modules represented by ZTE Corporation (up 13.3%), UnionPay (up 22.9%), Zhongji Xuchuang (up 8.6%) and Xinyi Sheng (up 7.0%) are favored by investors. In the computer sector, stocks such as Hang Seng Electronics (up 11.9%), iFLYTEK (27.9%) and Kingsoft Office (107-> 132pint 2Q21) are favored by investors.

Chart: 2Q21 Communications sector Fund heavy holdings TOP20 holdings (listed by 2Q21 holding market value in descending order)

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Note: closing price information as of 2021-7-22

Chart: 2Q21 computer sector fund heavy holdings TOP20 holdings (listed by 2Q21 holding market value in descending order)

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Note: closing price information as of 2021-7-22

Chart: 2Q21 Communications sector Fund heavy holdings of TOP20 holdings (sorted by the number of 2Q21 funds in descending order)

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Note: closing price information as of 2021-7-22

Chart: 2Q21 computer sector fund heavy holdings TOP20 holdings (sorted by the number of 2Q21 funds in descending order)

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Note: closing price information as of 2021-7-22

Analysis of the position of Shanghai (Shenzhen) Hong Kong Stock Connect: Apple Inc's leading industrial chain is unabated, and the semiconductor sector is favored by overseas investors.

Analysis of Stock position of Shanghai (Shenzhen) shares in Electronic Plate

The popularity of the leading company of 2Q21 Apple Inc industrial chain continues unabated, and high-quality semiconductor stocks are increased by overseas investors. We analyzed the shareholding situation of the electronic plate 2Q21 Shanghai (Shenzhen) Stock Exchange. Overseas investors mainly increased their holdings in the Apple Inc industrial chain, such as Lixun Precision, Gale shares, Lance Technology, and so on. At the same time, the positions of high-quality semiconductors such as Weir shares, Zhaoyi Innovation, Zhuosheng Micro and other high-quality semiconductors also increased. Compared with A-share public offering fund positions, we see that 2Q21 overseas investors in the electronic sector and public offering fund operation direction is basically the same, showing a positive view of the Apple Inc industrial chain leading company and semiconductor business cycle; security plate, affected by the list of entities into the United States, Haikangwei position has fallen.

Chart: electronics industry Shanghai (Shenzhen) Hong Kong Stock Connect shares in circulation market capitalization list

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Note: the net inflow amount is calculated by CICC, and the formula: net inflow amount = number of net inflows * average transaction price in the range, market capitalization data up to the end of each quarter.

Analysis on the General position of Shanghai (Shenzhen) shares in Communication Plate

We analyzed the shareholding situation of 2Q21 Shanghai (Shenzhen) Stock Exchange in the communications sector. according to the ranking of shareholding market value, overseas investors mainly increased their holdings of China Unicom, Zhongji Xuchuang, ZTE Corporation, Yilian Network and so on.

Chart: telecommunications industry Shanghai (Shenzhen) Hong Kong Stock Connect shares in circulation market capitalization list

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Note: the net inflow amount is calculated by CICC, and the formula: net inflow amount = number of net inflows * average transaction price in the range, market capitalization data up to the end of each quarter.

Analysis of Hong Kong Stock Exchange positions in Technology and Telecom sectors

From the market value of holdings, 2Q21 southward funds continued to substantially increase positions Tencent, 2Q21 single-quarter net inflow of 13.96 billion Hong Kong dollars (CICC estimates), the market value of holdings reached 372.959 billion Hong Kong dollars, ranking first. At the same time, southward funds substantially increased Sunny Optical Technology's position, ranking second with a net inflow of HK $9.747 billion in a single quarter, mainly because the market expected the company's on-board business to rise, and the company was optimistic that the company would become one of the beneficiaries of the transformation wave of self-driving. BYD Electronic's net inflow ranked fourth, reflecting that the market continues to be optimistic about the company becoming a platform manufacturing company. China Telecom Corporation, XIAOMI Group-W and Kingdee International Software Group ranked 5th-7th respectively. 2Q21 southward funds mainly increase holdings of Tencent, Sunny Optical Technology, Byd Company Limited and other companies, mainly reduce holdings of Lenovo Group Limited, Kingsoft, Jiantao laminates and other companies. From the perspective of industry segmentation, southward capital investment is still concentrated in the mobile phone industry chain, the Internet and other areas of white horse stocks.

Chart: a list of the current market value of the shares held by the technology hardware sector of Hong Kong stocks

Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department

Note: the net inflow amount is calculated by CICC, and the formula: net inflow amount = number of net inflows * average transaction price in the range, market capitalization data up to each quarter

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