I. Overview of events
After the launch of the ID4 in March 2021, Volkswagen launched the ID.6X and ID.6CROZZ in June and July respectively, and plans to launch a domestic ID3 this year. At present, the guiding prices of the two ID.6 models are from 240000, and the new car is located in the pure electric 6max 7-seat SUV, and there is no direct competitor for the same price model.
II. Analysis and judgment
Volkswagen electric vehicle promotion plan gradually landed, the company CO2 air conditioning pipeline volume is coming, the company's new energy vehicle business products for CO2 heat pump air conditioning pipeline, has passed Volkswagen certification, and entered the stage of gradual mass production, the follow-up is expected to continue to expand new customers at home and abroad. We believe that the main growth points of the company's new energy steam zero business in the future include: 1) new energy vehicles enter the volume period and high growth in the industry; 2) increase the permeability of CO2 pipeline products in existing customers; 3) new customer expansion; 4) new product development, including electronic expansion valve for CO2 heat pump to increase bicycle value. In terms of production capacity, the company will put into production of CO2 pipeline products in October 2021, and plans to achieve a production capacity of 50, 000 sets per year. It is expected that there will be new production capacity next year, and the pace of production expansion is good, and the products are expected to be gradually expanded.
Deep cultivation of professional areas, high-quality customer structure
In terms of traditional auto zero, the output and shipments of the company's main product fuel distributor in 2020 reached 2.81 million and 2.85 million respectively, an increase of 8.4% and 11.1% respectively over the same period last year, and both production and sales increased steadily. In addition, the company actively responds to the national six b emission standards and plans to increase the production capacity of the national six b fuel distributor by 200,000 pieces per year and 1 million pieces per year in October 2021 and December 2022 respectively, and the production capacity construction continues to advance. With the promotion of national sixth b, the value of the company's fuel distributor has increased, and with the recovery of the production capacity of automobile companies, downstream replenishment is expected to continue to improve the company's performance, and the growth rate of fuel distributor business is expected to maintain 20% and 30% next year.
In terms of automation equipment, the newly signed order of the company reached 290 million yuan in 2020, and the new order of Q1 in 2021 is more than 100 million yuan. With the gradual settlement of new orders last year, the automation equipment business is expected to return to the growth trend this year. The company's automation equipment business focuses on the field of automotive electronics, and its core customers include automotive electronics giants such as Bosch China, United Electronics and Denso. With the continuous improvement of the automotive electronic rate, downstream customers continue to increase the automotive electronics production capacity construction and upgrading, the company is deeply bound to downstream high-quality leaders, is expected to continue to obtain orders, broad space for growth.
Acquisition of Zero Automobile Business from Zhongyuan, coordinated Development to achieve Resonance
The coordinated development of the company and Zhongyuan is mainly reflected in the support of the equipment end to the traditional steam zero business, the company starts from automation, and has the advantages of R & D and manufacturing of automation equipment, which leads to a certain degree of cooperation after the acquisition of Zhongyuan. Improve the production process and reliability of parts and components, and save capital expenditure, the company's per capita output value has increased, profitability and production capacity have been improved. From 2018 to 2020, the revenue of the company's auto parts business increased from 270 million to 460 million, the gross profit margin increased from 18.7% to 28.1%, and the net profit margin increased from 8.7% to 15.3%.
III. Investment suggestions
It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company will achieve an operating income of 890, 1555, 566 million yuan, and a net profit of 1.61 million, 314, 545 million yuan. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 53-27-16 times. We refer to the valuation of the comparable company in three main businesses. In 2022, the average PE of the comparable company for automation equipment, traditional auto parts and new energy automobile parts is respectively multiple of 25-30-60. Considering the rapid growth of the company's heat pump air conditioning pipeline system for new energy vehicles, the high technical barriers to superimposed products and the increase in the value of bicycles, the new energy automobile parts are given a certain valuation premium of 70 times. Maintain the recommended rating.