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苹果(Apple):精元为 MacBook 剪⼑脚键盘背光新供货商,获利将 显著受惠于商业模式改变与 MacBook 出货量成长

Apple (Apple): Jingyuan is a new supplier of backlighting keyboards for MacBooks. Profits will benefit significantly from changes in business models and growth in MacBook shipments

天風國際 ·  Jul 23, 2021 11:17

Analyst: Guo Minghui Ming-Chi Kuo

According to our latest industry survey, Jingyuan's scissorsThe light guide for the keyboard cutter has passed Apple's quality verification and is expected to start at 2H21amountsProduction and delivery, and breaking Maolin's exclusive supply position for the past two years. We predict that Jingyuan's share of light guide plate supply will reach about 35% and 50% in 2H21 and 2022, respectively. We estimateHigh levelLed Light Board will contribute NT$0.3 to 0.5 yuan and NT$1.2-1.5 respectively to Jingyuan's 2H21 and 2022 EPS. Benefiting from this new business contribution, Jingyuan's EPS in 2021 and 2022 will reach approximately NT$8 and NT$9-10 respectively.

    We anticipate that Jingyuan will begin mass production of light guides for MacBook keyboards on the 2H21 2H21, for use in the two new 2H21 MacBook Pros and existing MacBook models. Maolin's position of exclusively supplying light guide panels for 2 years will be broken.

  1. We believe that under normal circumstances, Apple will avoid having only one supplier for parts. We believe that bringing in the number one light guide board supplier will help Apple reduce supply risk and increase bargaining power.

  2. It has been two years since Jingyuan invested in the development of light guide panels, so we believe that Jingyuan is very motivated to obtain an order for light guide panels. According to our latest industry survey, Jingyuan's light guide panels have recently passed Apple's quality verification, and the quality is similar to Maolin's.

  3. If Jingyuan successfully ships light guide boards, we expect that Jingyuan's share of light guide board supply will reach about 35% and 50% in 2H21 and 2022, respectively.

Jingyuan's revenue and profits are expected to start increasing in 2H21. Light guide boards have an interest rate of about 30-40% compared to keyboards, so entering the light guide board supply chain will significantly increase the profitability of Jingyuan.

  1. Although the light guide plate ASP (USD$10-12) is only about 30-40% of the keyboard, the efficiency of the light guide board is 30-40% compared to the keyboard, so Jingyuan's profit energy/EPS is expected to benefit significantly from the light guide board order.

  2. We estimate that high-strength light guides will contribute NT$0.3-0.5 and NT$1.2—1.5 to Jingyuan's 2H21 and 2022 EPS, respectively. Benefiting from this new business contribution, Jingyuan's EPS in 2021 and 2022 will reach approximately NT$8 and NT$9-10 respectively.

  3. We estimate that MacBook shipments will grow 40-45% HOH in 2H21, and that the problem of missing laptops will improve in 2H21, so Jingyuan's shipping momentum will increase significantly in 2H21.

Jingyuan's future growth will be driven by orders for light guide boards for MacBook cut-and-cut keyboards, increased penetration rates for iPad smart keyboards, and structural changes in laptop demand for new MacBook Air in 2022, assembling MacBook scissor keyboards and light guide boards, and WFH (working from home).

  1. Jingyuan's EPS growth in 2H21 and 2022 drove future orders for self-guided light panels.

  2. The iPad's smart keyboard uses a cut-cut keyboard and backlit design. We believe that when supporting productivity software is becoming more and more complete, the iPad will also help Smart Control keyboard penetration increase and Jingyuan's shipping momentum. We predict that the penetration rate of smart keyboards will grow 30-40% over the next 2-3 years from the current 5-15%.

  3. We expect Apple to release a new MacBook Air around mid-2022, and this new model will have a 13.3-inch mini LED display. If component shortages are expected to continue to improve in 2022, we expect MacBook shipments to grow by approximately 20-22 million units in 2022 (vs. 17.7-18 million units in 2021), benefiting from the continuous upgrades of the new MacBook Air and Apple Silicon.

  4. Jingyuan's growth in the MacBook supply chain has been divided into three stages, including entering the MacBook keyboard supply chain (2019), shipping the keyboard and light guide board at the same time (2021), and assembling the MacBook scissor keyboard and light guide board. We expect that in 2 years, Jingyuan will assemble the MacBook clipper keyboard and light guide board (assembled by Guangda before installation). This change will help Apple reduce the complexity of supply chain management, and Jingyuan can further increase profits through vertical integration. We believe that once Apple has decided that Jingyuan and Weichuang will assemble the keyboard and light guide board, Jingyuan will also become the main supplier of the light guide board since it is the main supplier of keyboards (60% of the supply).

  5. We believe WFH has structurally changed the demand for notebook computers, which will contribute to the long-term growth of Jingyuan.

Investment advice: Jingyuan is a new supplier of backlighting keyboards for MacBooks. Profits will benefit significantly from changes in business models and growth in MacBook shipments.

Risk warning: Production of new products has been delayed or market demand has fallen short of expectations.

According to Our Latest Industry Survey, Sunrex's Light Guides for Scissor Switch Keyboards Had Passed Apple's Underwater, and It Will Begin Mass Production and Decisions in 2H21, Breaking GLT's exclusive supply position in the past two years. We forecast that Sunrex's Profit Allocation of Light Guides will reach 35% and 50% in 2H21 and 2022, plans.

Thanks to the New Business Guide, we estimate that Hi-GPM Lightguide will give NT$0.3-0.5 and NT$1.2-1.5 to Sunrex's EPS in 2H21 and 2022, to Sunrex's, and that Sunrex's EPS Will Reach Reach NT$8 and NT$9-10 in 2021 and 2022, competitions. We predict that Sunrex will begin mass production of light guides for MacBook keyboards for the two new 2H21 MacBook Pro models and the existing MacBook models in 2H21. It Will Break GLT's Two-Year Exclusive Supply Position of Light Guides

  1. We believe that in general cases, Apple will avoid having only one supplier for components. We think that the initiation of a second supplier of light guides will help Apple reduce supply risk and reduce bargaining power.

  2. Sunrex Has Been Stronger in Underworld Light Guide for Two Years, So We Believe That Sunrex Has A Strong Chance to Stronger Light Guide Orders. In season, our latest industry survey suggests that Sunrex's light guide has recently passed Apple's season and have a similar quality to GLT's.

  3. If Sunrex's Lighter of Light Guides Go Goodies, We Expect Sunrex's Supply Ratio of Light Guides to Reach Reach 35% and 50% in 2H21 and 2022, Expect.

Sunrex's revenue and profitability will grow in 2H21. The GPM of Light Guides is 30-40% higher than that of keyboards, so probably the supply chain of light guides will go out of light guides Sunrex's Profitability.

  1. Living the ASP for the light guide (USD$10-12) is 30-40% of that for the keyboard, the GPM for the light guide is 30-40% higher than that for the keyboard, so Sunrex's profitability/EPS Will Benefit from Light Guide Orders.

  2. We estimate that Hi-GPM Lightguides will be contributing NT$0.3-0.5 and NT$1.2-1.5 to Sunrex's EPS in 2H21 and 2022, announced. Benefiting from This New Business Reach, Sunrex's EPS Will Reach Reach NT$8 and NT$9-10 in 2021 and 2022, benefits.

  3. We estimate that MacBook will grow 40-45% HOH in 2H21 and that the component will improve in 2H21, so Sunrex's will improve momentum will be relaxed in 2H21.

Sunrex's Future Growth Will Be Driven by Orders for Light Guides of MacBook Scissor Switch Keyboards, Relaxed Rate of iPad Magic Keyboards, The New MacBook Air in 2022, Assembly of MacBook scissor switch keyboards and light guides, and structural changes in demand for work from home (WFH).

  1. Sunrex's EPS Growth Drivers in 2H21 and 2022 Will Be Light Guide Orders.

  2. iPad's Magic Keyboard supports scissor mechanism backlit designs We believe that the iPad's Relaxation Complete Support for Productivity Software Will Also Help Helpful Magic Keyboard Relaxation Rate and Sunrex's Upside Momentum. We predict that the rainfall rate of the magic keyboard will grow from the current 5-15% to 30-40% in the next 2-3 years.

  3. We expect Apple to release a new MacBook Air with a 13.3" mini LED display around mid-2022. Continue to improve component shortages in 2022. In that case, we expect MacBook to grow to grow 20-22 million units in 2022 (vs. 17-18 million units in 2021) thanks to the new MacBook Air and Vehicles Apple Silicon The underside.

  4. Sunrex's growth in the MacBook supply chain has three bedrooms, including entry into the MacBook keyboard supply chain (2019), shipping both keyboards and light guides (2021), and assembling MacBook scissor switch keyboards and light guides We Expect That Sunrex Will Assemble the MacBook Scissor Switch Keyboard and Light Guides (by Quanta) in Two Years. This change will help Apple reduce the supply chain management and supply chain management Sunrex's profitability through vertical integration. We believe that once Apple takes to have Sunrex and Wistron assemble the keyboard and the light guide, Sunrex will become the leading supplier of the light guide as it is the main supplier Of the keyboard (60% market share).

  5. We believe that WFH's structural change in demand for profit will contribute to Sunrex's structural growth.

Stock for actions: Sunrex is a new supplier of light guide plates for MacBook scissor switch keyboards, and its profitability will benefit from the change in business model and growth in MacBook The underside.

risk: New product demand demand due to US-China trade war and COVID-19.

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