Event description
The company issued a notice on electricity generation and on-grid electricity price in the first half of 2021: in the first half of 2021, the company's cumulative electricity generation was 113.241 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 21.80 percent over the same period last year; online electricity completed 106.398 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 22.21 percent over the same period last year; the average online electricity price was 420.69 yuan per megawatt-hour, an increase of 2.74 percent.
Event comment
The demand for electricity is improving, and the power generation of the company has increased greatly. In the first half of 2021, thanks to the strong economic recovery, the national industrial power generation increased by 13.7% compared with the same period last year. Under the strong demand, the company's electricity generation increased by 21.80% to 113.241 billion kWh year-on-year, and the online electricity consumption increased by 22.21% to 106.398 billion kWh compared with the same period last year.
In terms of power sources, the company's thermal power, hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic power generation increased by 21.27%, 3.99%, 54.03% and 18.89% respectively in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. The market share of electricity has increased, and the company's comprehensive electricity price has risen. In the first half of 2021, the company's market-oriented trading electricity was about 60.54 billion kilowatt-hours, and the proportion of market electricity transactions was 56.9 percent, although it was about 6.5 percent higher than that of 50.4 percent in the same period last year. However, the company's on-grid electricity price still rose year-on-year: in the first half of the year, the company's average grid electricity price rose 2.74% year-on-year to 420.69 yuan / MW hour. The year-on-year increase in the company's electricity price may be due to an increase in the proportion of wind power with higher electricity prices, while strong demand in the first half of the year narrowed the market discount due to tight supply and demand in the electricity market. On the whole, in the context of rising volume and price, the company's revenue in the first half of the year is expected to increase significantly compared with the same period last year, thus driving the company's operating performance from the revenue side.
The coal price center rises, or converges the revenue elasticity. Affected by the continuous tightening of the supply and demand environment in the coal market since 2021, coal prices have risen rapidly. in the first half of the year, the average market price of Q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao reached 807.39 yuan / ton, an increase of 49.47 percent over the same period last year. Although the company achieved year-on-year growth in electricity generation and electricity prices in the first half of the year, the company's performance in the first half of the year may be under pressure due to the rising pressure on the end of fuel costs, and the rapid increase in coal prices may converge the company's revenue growth elasticity to a certain extent. However, the National Development and Reform Commission recently said that in order to ensure the supply of coal to meet the peak and spend the summer, it will continue to put in coal reserves to ensure the reasonable operation of coal prices. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the coal price center may tend to be weakened under the macro-control of the government. After a series of asset restructuring, the company has become a pure thermal power company. If the coal price weakens, the elasticity of the company's performance to the coal price will be fully demonstrated.
Profit forecast and valuation: according to the company's latest operating data, we adjust the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2021-2023 will be 0.44,0.52 and 0.64 yuan, corresponding to PE 7.93,6.59 and 5.37 times respectively, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1. Risk of environmental deterioration of power supply and demand
two。 The risk of non-seasonal rise in coal prices.