Basic conclusion
Online games-the "source code" agent and the R & D side continue to contribute to the integrated transformation of research and transportation, providing game content for light e-sports ecology. 1) the "source code" agent mode helps deep agent and technology accumulation. The unique source code agent model of Dream World deepens the technology accumulation of Dream World during the agency period, and helps self-research games and "end-to-end change hands" development efficiency. 2) the R & D side continues to invest in the integration of R & D and transportation in the dream world. Since 2020, the company will continue to launch self-research games, and it is expected that the ability of self-research will continue to enhance in the future
Deep ploughing two major tracks, boutique games are expected to achieve double revenue growth at home and abroad in the future: 1) the market space for Sanxiu is large, and the advantages of research and transportation may drive the simultaneous development of markets at home and abroad. The experience of the company's agent "Dream Home" and "Dream Garden" lays the foundation for the technical and level design of self-developed Sanxiao games. "Witch Diary" is expected to lead to revenue growth overseas in 2022. 2) the "misplaced competition" of competitive mobile games, and the simultaneous development of multi-category mobile games by self-research. The company is expected to achieve a breakthrough in competitive mobile games through the competitive mobile game "Little Animal Star", and multi-category competitive products such as RTS competitive mobile game "Global Action" and shooting competitive mobile game "Karabhiku" will be launched synchronously in the future.
Improve offline entertainment, online and offline integrated entertainment system to open up light e-sports ecology: 1) focus on "host experience + retail"play together" to create a new offline entertainment mode. "play together" is expected to create an offline entertainment complex loved by young people. 2) the combination of online games and offline entertainment to create a "light e-sports" entertainment industry, the development of "high-frequency, long-time, high-stickiness" high-quality users. The company focuses on leisure competitive mobile games and has "play together" offline entertainment neighborhoods, which is expected to create a complete "e-sports" ecosystem through e-sports competitions online and offline. 3) cooperate with QQ Family to expand the "trendy play" track and promote the offline business development of the company. The number of direct stores is expected to reach 150 in 2023, and the company is expected to cash in QQ Family's IP through "Tide play perimeter".
Investment suggestion
The integration of research and operation of the game business and offline stores are expected to begin to achieve initial results in 21 years, and the performance will accelerate from 2022 to 2023. We estimate that the net profit of 2021, 2022, and 2023 will be-1.15, 0.43, 0.83 million and 0.03, respectively, respectively. The EPS of 2022, 2023 will be 0.38, and the current stock price will correspond to the 108.89X/9.82X of 2022, 2023, respectively, and the segment valuation method will be adopted. Corresponding to the company's 2023 valuation center of 15.15 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 13.76 yuan, covered for the first time, given a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The upcoming online game performance is not as good as expected risk; the game offshore business development is not as expected as expected risk; offline store development is not as expected risk; self-developed game performance is not as expected; accounts receivable is higher risk.