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牛津经济研究院:最富裕国家房价被高估10%

Oxford Institute of Economics: House prices in the richest countries are overvalued by 10%

新浪財經 ·  Jul 20, 2021 21:52

The housing boom of the past decade has been one of the strongest in history; the Netherlands, Canada, France and Sweden are the riskiest markets.

After a decade, one of the most prosperous periods since 1990, house prices in the richest countries may have been overvalued by about 10 per cent, according to the Oxford Institute for Economics.

The British research firm ranks the Netherlands, Canada, Sweden, Germany and France as the riskiest real estate markets based on long-term trends and price-to-rent ratios. It estimates that house prices in 14 developed economies have risen by 43% over the past decade.

The current boom is the second longest in the past 120 years and the third highest in price increases, on a par with 2006, the last peak before the global financial crisis.

Prices in the US housing market rose the most in more than 30 years in April, while UK real estate rose the most in nearly two decades in the same month. In both markets, low mortgage rates, strong demand for large suburban households and supply shortages are all driving factors.

Adam Slater, an economist at the Oxford Institute for Economics, said higher valuations and continued house price rises raised the likelihood of a "price reversal", but mortgage rates are rising more slowly than before the financial crisis, suggesting that the risk of a bubble bursting is much lower.

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