Dow technology to generate new energy track, while ploughing ceramic materials business, formed a "lithium materials + ceramic materials" two-line pattern, focusing on the development of ternary precursors, cobalt salts and conductive agent business, homeopathic expansion of production capacity, bigger and stronger, to the first c traditional ceramic materials business from the technology, quality, cost, market four dimensions to consolidate the leading position. In 21-23, the company's net profit is expected to be 5.3x950,000,000 yuan and EPS is 0.9900,000,000 yuan respectively. 21 years will be the starting point for the rapid growth of the company's performance after several years of adjustment, maintaining the "highly recommended-A" rating.
Lithium electric material + ceramic material "twin engine", start the performance explosion. Global accelerated infiltration of new energy vehicles led to the outbreak of demand for lithium materials, ternary cathode materials are still the main force, the trend of high nickel is obvious, the precursor accounts for 40% of the cost of cathode raw materials, the value is significant, enterprises with upstream resources will fully benefit. After a drastic business transformation in the early stage, Dow Technology has cut into the fields of ternary precursors, cobalt salts and graphene / carbon nanotube conductive materials through the acquisition and holding of Carner Energy and Qingdao Haoxin. At present, the company's product demand has ushered in an explosive period. repair both inside and outside the company, will fully enjoy the rapid growth dividend of the industry.
2021 will be the starting point for the rapid growth of the company's performance.
1) Ternary precursor business, the company is a mainstream ternary precursor enterprise with stable market share, excellent performance of high nickel products, deep binding of high-quality customers and upstream cobalt resources. The cost advantage of integrated layout is obvious. The production capacity will reach 50,000 tons in 21 and 250000 tons in 23. The company will fully benefit from the wave of new energy development.
2) graphene / carbon nanotube conductive materials business, the top two leaders in the domestic industry, with a few complete industrial chain of natural graphite materials, obvious technical advantages, key customers mainly include BYD, Nandu Power supply, etc. Graphene slurry will replace carbon black to become the mainstream conductive material with the continuous improvement of lithium battery performance requirements, opening up the space for high-speed growth.
3) Ceramic glaze business, domestic ceramic ink and ceramic glaze material leader, obvious advantages in scale, R & D, products and customers, strategic cooperation includes Dongpeng Group, Xinmingzhu Group, Hongyu Group, Jinyi Pottery Group, etc., the market position is outstanding, the current building ceramic market board, rock plate upgrading spring tide has begun, the company will open a new growth space in the process of industry technology upgrading.
Investment advice: clear business layout, card position of new energy core materials. Ternary precursors fully enjoy the development dividend of the industry, integrated layout, volume rise and price rise, and capacity expansion from this year will open the road of rapid growth. Ceramic business will benefit from the technological upgrading of the industry to obtain new growth space, the leading position is more stable. By breaking up the business of different sectors of the branch, different valuations are given respectively. In 22, the corresponding valuation of the ternary precursor + cobalt salt + copper products / conductive agent / ceramic material plate is 200x78 / 2 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding target market value is 29.8 billion yuan. Corresponding to the reasonable target price of 53 yuan, 21 years will be the starting point for the company's rapid growth. Continue to maintain the "highly recommended-A" rating.
Risk tips: 1, the industry growth rate is lower than expected; 2, the release of ternary precursor capacity is not as expected; 3, continuous management improvement.
