Original title: us Oil fell nearly 3% to refresh its new low for more than a month, but bullish voices still linger in our ears.
Monday (July 19) in European trading
+) the impact of the oil-producing countries' agreement to increase production, which was not reached because of opposition from the United Arab Emirates, sparking fears of a shortage in the oil market.
As of press time, the United States
Crude oil futures traded at US $59.54 per barrel, down 2.67%, and Brent crude oil.
The futures price was at 71.66 US dollars per barrel, down 2.63%.
Saudi Arabia has reached a compromise with the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia has partially met the UAE's demand for an increase in the production ceiling. Starting in August, OPEC+ will increase production by 400000 b / d per month until all suspended capacity is restored. From May 2022, the United Arab Emirates and several other member countries will apply a higher production baseline in terms of production reductions.
The UAE's production limit will be increased to 3.5 million b / d, which is lower than its initial requirement of 3.8 million b / d but higher than the previous baseline level of 3.2 million b / d. The Saudi energy minister said the baseline adjustment would not change the pace of increasing production by 400000 b / d a month when it takes effect next year. OPEC+ will continue to hold monthly meetings, including a review of the market in December, and may adjust the schedule if necessary.
As the global economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic and oil prices climbed to their highest level in about two and a half years earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to increase its share of production from May 2022.
Royal Bank of CanadaCapital markets said in a report that the agreement should comfort market participants that the group would not be mired in a chaotic break-up and would not open the production floodgates any time soon.
ANZ Bank will
Brent crude oil
With a short-term target price of $78 a barrel, OPEC's new agreement provides some stability, allowing an increase of 400000 b / d from August 2021 until the 5.8 million b / d production adjustment is phased out, the alliance will continue to meet monthly to adjust production to market fundamentals and could put prices under pressure in the short term as investors close their positions as supply is likely to increase in the coming months.
However, even if production increases and the market remains relatively nervous, the OPEC's ability to reach a deal should dispel concerns about the risk of a break-up of the alliance, and if fundamentals change, a monthly review of the deal should allow it to adjust and provide some stability to the market in the coming months, the bank said, although the likelihood of oil prices soaring in the next month or two has been reduced, so it will
Brent crude oil
The short-term (0-3 months) target price was lowered to 78 US dollars per barrel.
Citibank
Ed Morse, global director of research, said in his latest customer report that although OPEC+ reached an agreement to increase oil supply, oil prices still face further upward risks, the crude oil market is very tight, and supply growth of 400000 barrels per day will be negligible. Although the COVID-19 epidemic is still rampant, demand is significantly higher, and oil prices may rise further by the end of the summer.
Goldman SachsThe team of analysts expects
Brent crude oil
The price of the node at the end of the third quarter of this year and early next year is expected to be $82 and $80 per barrel, respectively, up from previous estimates of $80 and $75, respectively. Earlier, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reached an agreement to reduce production, eliminating a major risk of uncertainty on the supply side of crude oil in the future, which makes oil prices under short-term pressure, but the medium-and long-term outlook is further bullish, and market determinants have therefore shifted back to the demand side. The specific impact of the epidemic will be particularly noticed.
OPEC+ cut production by a record 10 million barrels a day last year as the epidemic evaporated demand, causing oil prices to plunge and US oil prices to negative at one point. At present, some supplies have been gradually restored, NissanThe volume was reduced by about 5.8 million barrels.
Traders reduced their open positions for the third day in a row on Friday, down 23800 contracts and 309500 contracts, according to preliminary data from the CME Group crude oil futures market.