Light industry manufacturing: from January to June, the sales area of new residential houses is + 29.4%, and the completion is + 27%. It is optimistic that the household boom will continue in the second half of the year.

天風國際 · Jul 19, 2021 11:34

评级：强于大盘(维持)

2021年6月新房表现好于2019年6月。新开工情况稳定：1小时21次完工继续回升。家居用品从一个较低的基数发展得很好。在大流行后的行业动荡中，市场集中度正在上升，在线软装零售在渠道扩张方面表现强劲。我们青睐周期较晚的家庭零售业。

新住宅销售量和竣工量将在21季度上升，我们预计下半年将会增长

2011年第一季度中国住宅和商业地产销售面积为7.9081亿平方米，同比增长29.4%(比5M21放缓9.6%)，比19年上半年增长19.5%。6月份销售额继续月度增长，住宅和商业地产面积为1.9388亿平方米，同比增长6.7%(增速放缓4.6%)，比2019年6月增长11%。

6月份一、二、三线城市新房销售同比增长

商业地产：1H21中国30个大中城市成交总面积9911万平方米，同比增长45.01%，比5M21收窄16.62ppt，比1H19年增长18.28%。按城市划分，一线成交面积2224万平方米，环比1H19增长33.03%；二线成交面积4931万平方米，环比1H19增长24.96%；三线城市成交面积2756万平方米，环比1H19下降0.19%。二手房：6月份，九大城市成交面积661万平方米，同比下降9.97%，环比5月份上升0.91%，环比2019年6月份下降1.95%。九大城市累计1h21二手住宅成交面积39.51m平方米，同比增长28.69%，环比1h19上涨5.31%。

商业和住宅竣工量同比大幅上升

2011年第一季度，全国住宅竣工面积26254万平方米，同比增长26.95%，比19年上半年增长14.50%。2021年期间，建成住宅物业的增长率将继续得到核实。6月份，住宅竣工面积6374万平方米，同比增长63.22%，比2019年6月增长55.67%。

根据AVC的数据，在5M21，累计全家具新房同比下降。从1月到5月，累计全套家具的新开工数达到88.6万套，同比下降6.3%。5月份，全装修的新住宅项目开工23.3万个，同比下降17.20%。从2016年到2018年，全套家具的新开工量大幅增加，因此考虑到商业周期为2-3年，我们预计从2020年到2021年，家具材料供应商的收入将快速增长。

2011年第一季度，中国家具零售额达到781亿元人民币，同比增长30%，比5M21低5.1个百分点，比19年上半年下降12.9%。6月份，家具零售额161亿元，同比增长13.40%，比2019年6月下降12.6%。

家居材料：2021年6月，刨花板和中密度纤维板价格小幅上涨。虽然MDI和TDI的价格在月度下降，但它们出现了显著的同比增长。刨花板：在1h21，18 cm的ASP为67.91元，同比增长5.13%，比1h19上涨5.88%。6月份ASP为70元，比5月份上涨1.97%。中密度纤维板：上半年15 cm的ASP为78.50元，同比上涨1.93%，较1h上涨4.50%。6月份ASP为80.80元，比5月份上涨2.24%。MDI：1h21，ASP为22093.44元/吨，同比上涨54.71%，比1h19年上涨4.28%。6月份，ASP为19095.24元/吨，较5月份下跌4.47%。TDI：1h21的ASP为14669.67元/吨，同比上涨37.15%，环比1h19上涨4.00%；6月份的ASP为13497.62元/吨，比5月份下降2.91%。

投资总结和风险

Sales of new housing in June 2021 were significantly better than in June 2019. New construction starts were stable: completions in 1H21 continued to recover. Home furnishings had high growth due to a low base. With the industry disruption in the wake of last year’s pandemic effects, the trend of a rising concentration of market leaders is showing. Online soft furnishing retail sales increased significantly and the industry's diversifying channel expansion created opportunities. We are optimistic about the late-cycle home retail sector. We recommend a strategy of high-growth and undervalued stocks: Xilinmen Furniture (603008 CH, BUY); Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co (603816 CH, BUY); Man Wah Holdings (1999 HK, BUY); Zbom Home Collection (603801 CH, BUY); Oppein Home Group Inc (603833 CH, BUY); and Suofeiya Home Collection (002572 CH, BUY). Risks include: low demand for redecorations; product deliveries less than expected; rising raw material prices; and exchange rate fluctuations.

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Rating: better than the market (maintain)

The performance of new houses in June 2021 is better than that in June 2019. New starts are stable: 21 projects per hour continue to pick up. Household goods have developed well from a low base. In the post-pandemic industry turmoil, market concentration is rising, and online soft retail has performed strongly in terms of channel expansion. We prefer home retailing, which has a late cycle.

New home sales and completion will rise in the 21st quarter, and we expect growth in the second half of the year.

In the first quarter of 2011, the sales area of residential and commercial real estate in China was 790.81 million square meters, up 29.4 per cent from the same period last year (9.6 per cent slower than 5M21) and 19.5 per cent over the first half of 1919. Sales continued to grow on a monthly basis in June, with residential and commercial real estate floor space of 193.88 million square metres, up 6.7 per cent from a year earlier (4.6 per cent slower) and 11 per cent higher than in June 2019.

Sales of new homes in first -, second-and third-tier cities increased in June compared with the same period last year.

Commercial real estate: 1H21 China's 30 large and medium-sized cities have a total transaction area of 99.11 million square meters, an increase of 45.01 percent over the same period last year, narrowing 16.62ppt than 5M21 and an annual increase of 18.28 percent over 1H19. By city, the first-tier transaction area was 22.24 million square meters, an increase of 33.03 percent over 1H19; the second-tier transaction area was 49.31 million square meters, an increase of 24.96 percent over 1H19; and the transaction area of third-tier cities was 27.56 million square meters, down 0.19 percent from 1H19. Second-hand housing: in June, the turnover area of nine major cities was 6.61 million square meters, down 9.97% from the same period last year, up 0.91% from May and 1.95% from June 2019. In nine major cities, the total transaction area of second-hand housing in 1h21 is 39.51m square meters, an increase of 28.69% over the same period last year and 5.31% higher than that of 1h19.

Commercial and residential completion increased sharply compared with the same period last year.

In the first quarter of 2011, the area of residential buildings completed nationwide was 262.54 million square meters, an increase of 26.95 percent over the same period last year and 14.50 percent higher than that of the first half of 1919 The growth rate of completed residential properties will continue to be verified during 2021. In June, the residential completed area of 63.74 million square meters, an increase of 63.22% over the same period last year, an increase of 55.67% over June 2019.

According to AVC, in 5M21, the cumulative number of fully furnished new homes declined compared with the same period last year. From January to May, the cumulative number of new furniture starts reached 886000, down 6.3 per cent from the same period last year. In May, 233000 fully renovated new housing projects started, down 17.20% from a year earlier. New construction of complete furniture has increased significantly from 2016 to 2018, so considering that the business cycle is 2-3 years, we expect the income of furniture material suppliers to grow rapidly from 2020 to 2021.

In the first quarter of 2011, retail sales of furniture in China reached 78.1 billion yuan, an increase of 30% over the same period last year, 5.1% lower than 5M21 and 12.9% lower than in the first half of 1919. In June, retail sales of furniture totaled 16.1 billion yuan, up 13.40 percent from the same period last year, down 12.6 percent from June 2019.

Household materials: in June 2021, the prices of particleboard and medium density fibreboard rose slightly. Although the prices of MDI and TDI fell on a monthly basis, they showed significant year-on-year growth. Particleboard: the ASP of 18 cm in 1h21 is 67.91 yuan, an increase of 5.13% over the same period last year and 5.88% higher than that of 1h19. ASP in June was 70 yuan, up 1.97% from May. Medium density fibreboard: the ASP of 15 cm in the first half of the year was 78.50 yuan, up 1.93% from the same period last year and 4.50% higher than 1h. ASP in June was 80.80 yuan, up 2.24% from May. MDI:1h21,ASP was 22093.44 yuan / ton, up 54.71% over the same period last year and 4.28% higher than 1h19. In June, ASP was 19095.24 yuan per ton, down 4.47 per cent from May. TDI:1h21 's ASP was 14669.67 yuan / ton, up 37.15% from a year earlier and 4.00% higher than 1h19; ASP in June was 13497.62 yuan / ton, down 2.91% from May.

Investment summary and risk

Sales of new housing in June 2021 were significantly better than in June 2019. New construction starts were stable: completions in 1H21 continued to recover. Home furnishings had high growth due to a low base. With the industry disruption in the wake of last year's pandemic effects, the trend of a rising concentration of market leaders is showing. Online soft furnishing retail sales increased significantly and the industry's diversifying channel expansion created opportunities. We are optimistic about the late-cycle home retail sector. We recommend a strategy of high-growth and undervalued stocks: Xilinmen Furniture (603008 CH, BUY); Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co (603816 CH, BUY); Man Wah Holdings (1999 HK, BUY); Zbom Home Collection (603801 CH, BUY); Oppein Home Group Inc (603833 CH, BUY); and Suofeiya Home Collection (002572 CH, BUY). Risks include: low demand for redecorations; product deliveries less than expected; rising raw material prices; and exchange rate fluctuations.

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轻工制造：1-6月住宅新房销售面积+29.4%，竣工+27%，看好下半年家居景气度持续

Light industry manufacturing: from January to June, the sales area of new residential houses is + 29.4%, and the completion is + 27%. It is optimistic that the household boom will continue in the second half of the year.

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