Main points of investment:
Maintain the overweight rating. Due to the repeated influence of the epidemic situation, the EPS of the company from 2021 to 2023 was 0.07 (- 0.15,0.21) / 0.35RMB respectively. Give the 2023 valuation 35 times, downgrade the target price to 12.13 yuan, maintain the overweight rating.
The results were slightly lower than expected: Quanjude issued a half-year performance forecast for 2021, with expected 2021H1 net profit of-4350 to-40 million yuan, 2020H1 net profit of-148 million, and 2019H1 net profit of 32.28 million. 2021Q2's quarterly net profit is expected to be 359-7.09 million, compared with-59.93 million in the same period last year, down 83.4% from the same period last year.
The epidemic situation has been repeated, making every effort to promote the recovery of catering operation. The 2021H1 epidemic has been repeated, and the company's operation has been affected to some extent, but it has not yet recovered to the level of the same period in 19 years. The company continues to focus on the time-honored brand "correct and innovative" work line, actively promote the implementation of planning projects and various measures, increase revenue and reduce expenditure, reduce cost and increase efficiency, and strive to improve business results. The company pays close attention to the innovation of food and service, promotes the organic combination of online and offline, innovates the marketing content and form, and enhances the consumer experience. Quanjude Qianmen restaurant taste light and shadow theme restaurant to shape the new image of Guochao time-honored brand. Global partner restaurant group meal project reception and income increase month by month.
Actively implement the dieticization of catering products and strengthen product research and development. The company innovates food sales business model to improve the level of food sales. Under the promotion of the gradual recovery of the market and the relevant adjustment measures of the company, the turnover has gradually increased, and the business performance has shown a warming trend.
Risk tips: repeated risks of the epidemic, rising costs of raw materials, less than expected food development, and so on.