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美国的通胀也许是暂时的 但可支配收入大跌的影响不容忽视

US inflation may be temporary, but the impact of the sharp drop in disposable income cannot be ignored

新浪財經 ·  Jul 16, 2021 00:24

The recent surge in core consumer and producer prices in the United States has masked the underlying substantive problems of the economy. Inflation-adjusted disposable income is falling significantly. This has the potential to curb spending and pose a major threat to risky assets, especially the stock market.

Disposable income is at its lowest level since before the financial crisis, and the boost from fiscal stimulus is fleeting. After the stimulus and subsidies are over, consumers' ability to boost the economy will be greatly reduced by the end of the third quarter. Retail sales figures for June, released on Friday, are likely to send the first signal.

As long as inflation continues to rise, whether short-lived or not, consumers' disposable income will fall. Falling spending means that profits are hurt and companies are in trouble, especially those that cannot pass on higher costs.

If inflation does not fall in time to make up for the decline in consumer income, the argument that inflation will eventually fall may be meaningless. As a result, it is clear that the prices of risky assets will have to adjust to a new environment in which inflation is more sticky.

This article, extracted from the Markets Live review, only represents the author's personal point of view and does not constitute investment advice.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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