Report guide
Broad Housing released half-yearly operating data for 2021. In terms of PC component manufacturing business, the total amount of new contracts signed by 21H1 was 2.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 57.0%; as of the end of 21H1, the outstanding contract amount was 6.301 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51.8%.
Main points of investment
B-end business: 21Q2 newly signed, revenue is expected to be flat compared with the same period last year, optimistic about Q3 peak season data newly signed orders: 21H1 newly signed PC components contract value of 2.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 57.0%; on a quarterly basis, 21Q1/Q2 newly signed PC component order contract value of 11.62 billion yuan, + 273.3% Universe 0.9% respectively. The growth rate of new 21Q2 signatures dropped month-on-month. On the one hand, we analyzed the impact of the policy of "centralized land supply". The deceleration of the release of residential land in the second quarter led to a decline in new construction data; on the other hand, the prices of steel bars and other raw materials rose too fast in the second quarter, and some properties slowed down the progress of construction. Expected revenue: manufacturing sector revenue in the second quarter is roughly flat. Combined with the data of newly signed and on-hand orders, we estimate that the contract value of 21Q1/Q2 manufacturing business is about RMB 360 gamble 909 million. Assuming that all the revenue is converted to the current revenue, it is estimated that the revenue of the manufacturing sector in the second quarter will be roughly the same as the same period last year, which is + 93.3% and 1.7% respectively over the same period last year. On-hand orders: at the end of 21H1, the outstanding orders for PC component manufacturing business totaled 6.301 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51.8%. At present, the steel price drop superimposed Q3 construction season is coming, the market demand for PC components is expected to resume high growth.
C-end business: the industry tycoon serves as the co-president and promotes the modular construction business on May 17, 2021. As a wholly-owned subsidiary, Changsha Yuanda Rubik's Cube Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Rubik's Cube Technology") completed the renaming work. On May 24, the company announced that Mr. Hu Shengli, former vice president of JD.com Group, was appointed as co-president of the company and CEO of Rubik's cube technology. During his time in JD.com, Hu Shengli was in charge of 3C Literature and Travel, Fashion Home Business and Strategic Cooperation Department, with rich management experience and rich channel resources in the literature, tourism and home industry. On June 11, the company released the Broad Rubik's Cube's new flagship series-Magic beans, which focuses on small apartment modular buildings. After the factory has completed structural die-casting molding and assembled interior, it will be delivered according to the product. At present, the main application scenarios include: residential accommodation, scenic parks and municipal sentry boxes, which have the characteristics of uniqueness, advanced nature, timeliness, environmental protection, energy saving and economic application. As the key business segment of the company, Broad Rubik's Cube is expected to become a new growth pole of the company's performance.
To strengthen the green and low-carbon construction of the county seat, the demand for PC components in the sinking market is expected to boost the goal of "carbon peak, carbon neutralization", the prefabricated building policy will be strengthened, and the prosperity will continue to improve. On May 25, the Ministry of Housing and Construction, together with 15 departments, issued the "opinions on strengthening Green and low-carbon Construction in County towns", requiring new buildings in the county to vigorously develop green buildings and building energy conservation. Six storeys are the main new houses, and the proportion of residential building area of six storeys or less should not be less than 70%. We believe that prefabricated buildings as a residential construction system "carbon reduction"
The main grasp, the new deal is expected to lead the county prefabricated building proportion, prefabricated rate indicators to further improve. In view of the fact that the company's shareholding or joint venture factories are mostly located in the sinking market such as prefecture-level cities, which can effectively radiate the county area, it is suggested to pay attention to the policy changes and market demand in the above areas.
Profit forecast and estimation
We forecast that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 624 million yuan, 812 million yuan and 1.065 billion yuan. The corresponding PE was 10.7,8.2and 6.2times, respectively. Under the background of the continuous increase of the assembly policy and the continuous improvement of the industry boom, the company focuses on the development of the main industry of PC component manufacturing, introducing industrial celebrities to take the role of C-end modular construction business, B-end and C-end two-wheel drive, 21 years of performance space, enough flexibility, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the improvement rate of prefabricated permeability is not as fast as expected; the growth rate of real estate investment is not as fast as expected.