Report guide
The company issued a half-year performance forecast for 2021, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 48 million yuan to 58 million yuan, of which Lian Tianmei's net profit from April to June is about 23 million yuan, and the net profit is about 12.5 million yuan. The recognized income of the real estate business is about 580 million yuan.
Main points of investment
With the steady progress of the transformation of medical beauty, Lian Tianmei contributed a new increase in performance. Q2 Liantianmei achieved a net profit / return net profit of about 230,000,000 yuan in a single quarter, maintaining a good profit level. The company adopted a "pinching" strategy to cut into the terminal track and acquired a 55% stake in Liantianmei in March this year with 697 million yuan in cash (consideration 1.351 billion yuan, corresponding to 15.65X PE, 2.61x PS). No matter in terms of income volume or profitability, even Tianmei is a leading institution in China, with a revenue / net profit of 486 million / 80.55 million yuan and a net profit margin of 17% in 2020. At the same time, in the acquisition of Liantianmei, Sheng Makeup promised that Liantianmei's cumulative net profit in 21 and 22 years would not be less than 157 million yuan. In the future, Aoyuan Meigu will also continue to look for potential acquisition targets whose profit level is similar to that of income volume and Liantianmei, so as to accelerate the transformation of the company's pure medical and beauty business.
The chemical fiber sector recovered in an orderly manner, and the real estate business still contributed to a stable volume of income.
Chemical fiber business: on the one hand, with the recovery of the epidemic situation and the pick-up of downstream demand, the production and sales of the company's chemical fiber business sector have recovered (the revenue of chemical fiber business in 19 / 20 is 680,000 million, and the gross profit margin is 24% and 13%). On the other hand, the company accelerates the expansion of green fiber business and industrial transformation and upgrading, aiming at the market of new materials for drug-loaded facial masks. In April 21, the 40,000-ton green fiber first phase project was officially put into production, and the construction of 60,000-ton green fiber second phase production line is steadily progressing. It is expected that a total of 100000 tons of production line construction and trial operation of the production line will be completed by the end of 2022.
Real estate business: as the project meets the conditions for the completion and delivery of buildings, the recognized income of the real estate business sector in the first half of the year is about 580 million yuan (1.403 billion yuan of real estate development income in 19 / 20 years). The company announced on June 22 that it intends to sell its 100% stake in Jinghan Real Estate Group Co., Ltd., Beijing Yangjia Health Management Co., Ltd., and Penglai Hualu Jinghan Endowment Service Co., Ltd. by way of public listing on the Beijing property Exchange. Together, these three assets account for 80.11% of the company's 2020 income, and the company's real estate business income may decline significantly after the transaction.
Second, the shareholder reduction plan is terminated ahead of schedule, and the equity incentive demonstrates the company's long-term determination to transform. At present, the company's second largest shareholder Jinghan Investment and its concerted actors Jianshui Tairong, Heli Wantong and Ms. Duan Yajuan have terminated the plan to reduce their holdings ahead of schedule (a total of 817500 shares, accounting for 0.1% of the company's share capital). At the same time, the company's equity incentive plan demonstrates the company's determination to transform; a total of 18.2 million shares are encouraged, accounting for about 2.33% of the total equity, and 14 people are encouraged by the company's directors, senior managers and core managers. The 100% exercise ratio of equity incentive corresponds to the net profit of 187 million yuan in 2021 and 569 million yuan in 2022.
The layout of the industrial chain blossoms at many points, and the medical and beauty business is ready to start. Since the transformation, in addition to the terminal track layout, the company has signed strategic cooperation with Jiyuan Biology, Jiyuan Medicine, Guangna Institute, KDMedical, Sainuoxu and Beautiful Mom to lay out the upstream racing tracks such as human protein, medical mask, injection products, medical equipment and post-natal repair, and adhere to the strategic positioning of medical and beauty ecological integrators. At the same time, the company through the industrial fund + industrial base and other ways to build the continuous incubation capacity of the medical and beauty business, and steadily promote the transformation of the medical and beauty business.
Profit forecast and valuation: we estimate that the income from 2021 to 2023 will be 23.8,30.1 and 4.16 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of returning home will be 1.7,3.2 and 460 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 89,48,34 times of PE. Considering that the layout of the company's medical and beauty industry chain has initially taken shape, the revenue and profit volume will continue to be expanded through high-quality endogenous growth and epitaxial mergers and acquisitions in the future, and pure medical beauty will be scarce in A shares, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: 1) the risk of intensified market competition; 2) the risk that the acquisition progress is not as expected; 3) the transformation progress is not as expected.
