Event: the company issued a 21H1 performance forecast, which is expected to turn losses into profits in the first half of 2021, realizing a net profit of 48 million yuan to 58 million yuan belonging to shareholders of listed companies. Among them, Zhejiang Liantianmei acquired by the company in the second quarter of this year brought positive contribution. Lian Tianmei made a net profit of about 23 million yuan from April to June in 21 years, and the net profit returned to its mother was about 12.5 million yuan.
Sub-business point of view: (1) the medical and American plate is progressing smoothly. Since 2021, the company has made a multi-directional layout in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the medical and beauty industry. Acquisition of Lian Tianmei cut into the mid-stream service industry, cooperation with Jiyuan Pharmaceutical, Jiyuan Biology and other enterprises, the layout of upstream medical beauty for the mid-stream enabling, cooperation with various MCN for the mid-stream drainage. At present, Liantianmei has begun to make performance contributions, and it is expected that the company's medical and beauty sector will continue to reap eye-catching performance in the future. (2) the real estate sector contributed a small amount of performance. During the reporting period, some real estate projects reached the conditions for completion and delivery, and it was confirmed that the operating income was about 580 million yuan, but the company's long-term strategy was to sell real estate and make every effort to lay out the medical and beauty sector. (3) the performance of chemical fiber green fiber plate rebounded. With the improvement of the epidemic situation, customer demand gradually recovered, and the company's chemical fiber business continued to recover.
Strengthen the positioning of "medical and aesthetic material merchants, science and technology businessmen, and service providers" to form a closed loop of the industrial chain. In the short term, the company accelerates mergers and acquisitions of medical and beauty service institutions, quickly occupies the C-end market, and gradually positions the upstream material end and the field of medical science and technology, realizing the preliminary layout of the upstream, middle and downstream; looking at the long term, as the company gradually makes profits, the "big medical beauty" plate empowers each other, market recognition and industry discourse power are gradually enhanced, medical beauty service-side competition barriers are gradually built, and the future profit space is considerable. With strong financial strength and strong resource integration ability, the company cooperates with the upstream, middle and downstream to build a moat of the medical and beauty industry and form a closed loop of the industrial chain, which is expected to share the growth dividend of the industry for a long time.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company is expected to achieve net profit of 2.39,3.66 and 569 million yuan in 21-23 years, and EPS of 0.31,0.47,0.73 yuan per share in 21-23 years, corresponding to PE valuation of 65,42,27 times respectively. By adopting the segment valuation method and referring to the comparable company valuation, we maintain the company's fair value of 28.55 yuan per share and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: increased competition; the progress of industrial layout is not as expected; acquisition and integration is not as expected.
