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纽约联储调查:美国消费者短期通胀预期再创纪录新高

New York Fed survey: short-term inflation expectations of US consumers hit a record high

新浪財經 ·  07/13/2021 00:17

纽约联储周一发布的月度调查显示,美国消费者预计未来一年经济将继续从新冠疫情中快速复苏,对通胀、收入、收入增长和支出的预测在6月份均有所增加。

调查显示,6月份消费者未来一年通胀预期中值连续第八个月走高,从5月份的4.0%升至4.8%,创下自2013年调查启动以来的新高;未来三年的通胀预期保持3.6%不变。

美联储青睐的通胀指标目前已飙升至1992年以来最快年度增速,远高于美联储2%的目标,但随着疫情造成的供应瓶颈开始消退,决策者对较高的通胀数据将持续多久仍存在分歧。

调查显示,消费者对就业市场的信心也越来越强。6月份,美国失业率将在未来一年更高的平均预期从5月份的31.9%降至30.7%的低点;受访者预计未来一年失业的概率也降至有记录以来新低。

未来一年预期收入增长中值在6月份小幅上升0.1个百分点至2.6%,为疫情开始以来最高。受访者表示,如果失业,他们再找到工作的几率更大,从5月份的54.0%升至6月份的 54.2%,尽管这仍远低于疫情前的水平。

此外,有初步迹象表明蓬勃发展的房地产市场可能达到顶峰,消费者对房价的预期保持不变,未来房价增长的不确定性升至有史以来的最高水平。

Risk disclosure: The above content only represents the opinion of the authors or guests, and does not represent any positions of Futu or constitute any investment advice on the part of Futu. Before making any investment decision, investors should consider the risk factors related to investment products based on their own circumstances and consult professional investment advisers where necessary. Futu makes every effort to verify the authenticity, accuracy, and originality of the above content, but does not make any guarantees or promises.

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