
纽约联储周一发布的月度调查显示,美国消费者预计未来一年经济将继续从新冠疫情中快速复苏,对通胀、收入、收入增长和支出的预测在6月份均有所增加。
调查显示,6月份消费者未来一年通胀预期中值连续第八个月走高,从5月份的4.0%升至4.8%,创下自2013年调查启动以来的新高;未来三年的通胀预期保持3.6%不变。
美联储青睐的通胀指标目前已飙升至1992年以来最快年度增速,远高于美联储2%的目标,但随着疫情造成的供应瓶颈开始消退,决策者对较高的通胀数据将持续多久仍存在分歧。
调查显示,消费者对就业市场的信心也越来越强。6月份,美国失业率将在未来一年更高的平均预期从5月份的31.9%降至30.7%的低点;受访者预计未来一年失业的概率也降至有记录以来新低。
未来一年预期收入增长中值在6月份小幅上升0.1个百分点至2.6%,为疫情开始以来最高。受访者表示,如果失业,他们再找到工作的几率更大,从5月份的54.0%升至6月份的 54.2%,尽管这仍远低于疫情前的水平。
此外,有初步迹象表明蓬勃发展的房地产市场可能达到顶峰,消费者对房价的预期保持不变,未来房价增长的不确定性升至有史以来的最高水平。

Us consumers expect the economy to continue to recover rapidly from the COVID-19 epidemic in the coming year, according to a monthly survey released by the New York Federal Reserve on Monday.Spending forecasts all increased in June.
The survey showed that the median consumer inflation expectations for the coming year rose for the eighth consecutive month in June, rising to 4.8 per cent from 4.0 per cent in May, the highest level since the survey was launched in 2013. Inflation expectations for the next three years remained unchanged at 3.6 per cent.
The Fed's preferred inflation indicator has soared to its fastest annual growth rate since 1992, well above the Fed's target of 2 per cent, but policymakers remain divided over how long the higher inflation data will last as the supply bottlenecks caused by the epidemic begin to subside.
The survey shows that consumer confidence in the job market is also growing. In June, the higher average expectation of the US unemployment rate for the coming year fell to a low of 30.7 per cent from 31.9 per cent in May, and respondents expected the probability of unemployment in the coming year to fall to its lowest level on record.
The median expected income growth for the coming year edged up 0.1 percentage points to 2.6% in June, the highest since the outbreak began. Respondents said they were more likely to find another job if they lost their jobs, rising from 54.0 per cent in May to 54.2 per cent in June, although this is still well below pre-epidemic levels.
In addition, there are early signs that the booming property market may peak, consumer expectations for house prices remain unchanged, and uncertainty about future house price growth rises to an all-time high.