Us consumers expect the economy to continue to recover rapidly from the COVID-19 epidemic in the coming year, according to a monthly survey released by the New York Federal Reserve on Monday.Spending forecasts all increased in June.
The survey showed that the median consumer inflation expectations for the coming year rose for the eighth consecutive month in June, rising to 4.8 per cent from 4.0 per cent in May, the highest level since the survey was launched in 2013. Inflation expectations for the next three years remained unchanged at 3.6 per cent.
The Fed's preferred inflation indicator has soared to its fastest annual growth rate since 1992, well above the Fed's target of 2 per cent, but policymakers remain divided over how long the higher inflation data will last as the supply bottlenecks caused by the epidemic begin to subside.
The survey shows that consumer confidence in the job market is also growing. In June, the higher average expectation of the US unemployment rate for the coming year fell to a low of 30.7 per cent from 31.9 per cent in May, and respondents expected the probability of unemployment in the coming year to fall to its lowest level on record.
The median expected income growth for the coming year edged up 0.1 percentage points to 2.6% in June, the highest since the outbreak began. Respondents said they were more likely to find another job if they lost their jobs, rising from 54.0 per cent in May to 54.2 per cent in June, although this is still well below pre-epidemic levels.
In addition, there are early signs that the booming property market may peak, consumer expectations for house prices remain unchanged, and uncertainty about future house price growth rises to an all-time high.