Event: the company disclosed a half-year performance forecast for 2021, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.28-278 million yuan for shareholders of listed companies from January to June, an increase of 802% over the same period last year. Split by quarter, the net profit of 1Q is 70 million yuan, while that of 2Q is estimated at 180 million yuan per quarter. We believe that the growth of the new energy vehicle industry is clear, the company's increased investment is in line with the industry law, with the gradual release of production capacity, the company's high performance growth is determined, continue to "strongly recommend-A".
The advantage of integrated layout is highlighted, and the price of lithium electric materials is rising. 1) the three-yuan precursor business, the company is a first-line three-yuan precursor enterprise with stable market share and excellent performance of high-nickel products. It is expected that shipments will account for 50% of the total shipments in 21 years, bringing about an increase in product gross margin, deeply binding high-quality customers, holding upstream cobalt resources, and obvious cost advantages in integrated layout. Starting from this year, the expansion of production capacity will be gradually released, which will fully benefit from the wave of new energy development. 2) graphene conductive materials business, the company is the top two leaders in the domestic industry, with a small number of natural graphite materials complete industrial chain, binding BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and other heavyweight customers, with the continuous improvement of lithium battery performance requirements and replace carbon black to become the mainstream conductive materials, opening up the space for rapid growth.
Actively expand production, optimize the layout of capacity, and embrace the development of the industry. 1) on the demand side of the industry, according to GGII's forecast, global shipments of ternary precursors are expected to reach 1.6 million tons in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 30%.
We expect the global cobalt supply to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 8.48% from 2021 to 2025, and the supply gap is gradually increasing, mainly due to the continuous demand for 3C consumer electronics high-capacity and new energy power batteries. 2) in terms of production capacity layout, the company actively expands production to grasp the high-speed growth dividend of the industry. From 21 to 25, the total production capacity of ternary precursors will reach 50, 000 tons, 150000 tons, 250000 tons, 350000 tons and 500000 tons respectively, and form a supporting cobalt and nickel production capacity (it is building a new capacity of 20, 000 tons of metal cobalt salt and 30, 000 tons of metal nickel salt per year). We believe that with the continuous strengthening of the company's management and the deepening of the layout of lithium materials, the production capacity of ternary precursors will be released quickly, the company will deeply benefit from the development of the industry, and 21 years will be the starting point for the company's rapid growth.
Undervalued first-line lithium materials enterprises. Three before the body, the industry leader Zhongwei shares in the PE between 100-200X, with a total market capitalization of about 90 billion yuan. Graphene conductive materials, the industry leader Tiannai technology PE between 60-150X, with a total market capitalization of about 35 billion yuan. More than 60% of the company's revenue comes from new energy materials, mainly ternary precursors and graphene conductive pastes, and will continue to expand R & D and investment in new energy materials in the future, with clear production expansion plans. integrated business layout to master upstream cobalt and nickel resources will strengthen competition barriers and will enjoy high growth valuation levels in the industry in the future.
Profit forecast and rating: the company is a first-line ternary precursor production enterprise, a domestic leading enterprise of graphene conductive agent, and has obvious advantages in the strategic layout of new energy materials integration. In the future, it will significantly benefit from the high prosperity of the new energy industry. At present, there are sufficient orders for cobalt salts, ternary precursors and graphene / carbon nanotube conductive agents. In the future, with the further release of production capacity, the performance will continue to climb. 21 years is the starting point for the company's long-term growth. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 21 to 23 years will be RMB 730,950,000,000 and EPS 0.94, respectively. The company will continue to strongly recommend-A rating.
Risk tips: 1, the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; 2, the release of ternary precursor capacity is not as expected.