Overview of events:
Shenzhen International issued a notice on July 5, 2021, saying: with regard to the potential acquisition of shares in SUNING Group Co., Ltd announced on February 28, 2021, the company failed to reach a final agreement on the terms of business cooperation after consultation and discussion with the share transferor on the potential acquisition. After comprehensive consideration of various factors and careful analysis and demonstration, the company decided to terminate the potential acquisition.
Comments:
The termination of potential acquisitions has no significant impact on the normal operation of the company.
First of all, at the business level, the company did not have much cooperation with SUNING before. Secondly, the acquisition may not directly affect the existing cooperative relationship between the company and SUNING. Therefore, we believe that the termination of the potential acquisition has no significant impact on the normal operation of the company.
The uncertainty of the acquisition is eliminated, and the worries in the secondary market may disappear.
In view of SUNING's poor fundamental expectations and more negative information related to SUNING in June, there may be some concern in the secondary market about potential acquisitions. The termination of the potential acquisition, in the short term, the uncertainty will be eliminated, and the concern in the secondary market that the acquisition may be a drag on Shenzhen International may disappear.
There is still the possibility of cooperation in the field of logistics business in the future.
The company announced that it will continue to explore opportunities for cooperation in the field of logistics business with SUNING. Shenzhen International as a national logistics service provider, SUNING as a large national retailer that needs to be supported by an efficient logistics system, the business of the two sides itself has a strong complementary and collaborative potential. Therefore, we believe that it is still possible for the two sides to cooperate in the field of logistics business in the future.
Profit forecast
We expect the company's core main business, such as logistics business, toll roads, wharves and environmental protection, to achieve steady and rapid growth in 2021, and profitability is expected to be fully restored. In terms of net profit, we estimate that the profit attributable to shareholders of the company will be about HK $4.03 billion in 2021, a slight increase over 2020.
Valuation and investment rating
Shenzhen International (00152.HK) Hong Kong shares closed at HK $10.82 on July 6, 2021, corresponding to our 2021 forecast results of about 6.1 times PE and 0.7 times PB, with a low valuation.
In the medium to long term, the company, as an advantageous state-owned enterprise with a large number of high-quality logistics and transportation core assets, is expected to continue to improve its operation scale and profitability in the process of transforming into an integrated service provider of the logistics industry in the future. and the value of a lot of land resources owned by the company in Shenzhen will continue to be released. On the whole, we believe that the company has a better medium-and long-term investment value and maintain the buy rating.
(note: the above data are all from listed company announcements, listed company websites, Wind, Guoxin Securities (Hong Kong) Research Department)
Risk hint
The profitability of logistics business is lower than expected, and the transformation and upgrading projects are lower than expected.