Original title: Goldman Sachs: the global stock market has an amazing "gold attraction" this year! Pay special attention to the first two weeks of July
ScottRubner, a trader at Goldman Sachs, said last week that the market was entering its best two-week seasonal golden period of the year.
On Monday, the bank issued a follow-up report, first pointing out that the S & P 500 hit a record high for seven consecutive trading days, only five times since 1928. If it reaches a new high, it has only happened three times in history.
What shocked him even more was the inflow of money:
"in the 18 years I have tracked capital flows, I have never imagined such a large inflow. This is my busiest weekend and the weekend with the most customer problems in 2021.
As shown in the chart below, inflows into global equity funds reached an all-time high of $517 billion in the first half of 2021. The inflow is 2.6 times that of the same period in 2017.
Global equity funds had inflows of $169 billion in the second quarter of 2021, the second largest in history, with the first place in the first quarter of 2021.
Global equity fund inflows will exceed $103.5 million in 2021.
If the growth rate remains the same for the rest of 2021, global equity fund inflows will reach six times the cumulative total of the past nine years. At this rate, there will be 125 more trading days in 2021, with average demand worth $4 billion per day.
Rubnet explains that one reason for the increase in investment is a surge in retail activity while institutional investment activity has stagnated:
As the stock market rose, the bulls continued to fall, and market sentiment reversed. As for this week, overall market leverage fell to its lowest level since October.
This is an interesting situation. Investors waiting to bottom out began to re-enter the U. S. stock market in July.As a result, capital flows are expected to be strongest in the next 1-2 weeks in July, as investors have just finished a short holiday.”
But at the same time, Rubner says he will be more cautious if the supply and demand situation changes:
"We discussed on Friday that we are now in the best two-week seasonal cycle of the year, while this quarter's pension funds are back on the stock market. This dynamic is likely to change the stock market in August. "